3min chapter

UBS On-Air: Market Moves cover image

Top of the Morning: Year Ahead - Investment Grade Corporates edition

UBS On-Air: Market Moves

CHAPTER

Outlook for Investment Grade Corporates in 2024

This chapter discusses the outlook for investment grade corporates in 2024, including the expected decline in treasury yields, potential appreciation in bond prices, and the drivers of investment-grade returns.

00:00
Speaker 2
So with that context, Barry, as we look ahead to 2024, what is CIO's outlook for the asset class?
Speaker 1
Yeah, so not too dissimilar, really, from our view in the beginning of 2023. We think, again, the main value proposition for investors comes from the absolute yield. And most of that coming from the level of treasury securities. We do think that treasury yields as Leslie Falconeo has been articulating likely to decline throughout the course of next year based on just a slower trajectory of economic growth, as well as this continued trend in disinflation in the marketplace. So we think that the Fed basically is at the end of its tightening cycle, not likely to raise rates again, in fact, likely to reduce rates next year, probably not until maybe mid-year though. You expect cuts of maybe two to three cuts next year. That should be an environment where treasury yields move lower. And bond prices, such as investment-grade corporates, could appreciate in that environment. I think, again, in terms of the overall credit spread now, given the sharp tightening that we witnessed more recently, the investment-grade index is at a spread level of about 110 basis points, which is on that kind of the tighter end of what we pegged to the fair value. If we do see investment-grade spreads wider now, though, we do think that the magnitude of such widening should be a bit limited in scope. I think even if we do have unforeseen market risk-off events, think about a level of, let's say, 160 basis points, which might be a bit about a peak in which spreads could widen. That's the spread level that we saw in this past March with the bank volatility. And again, I think what we think about investment-grade returns, we do think that 2024, we're going to see them driven by both the coupon and the curve rolldown that bonds provide. So that alone kind of gives you that mid-single-digit 5% return potential. But we do think that in 2024, price gains are more likely. Again, driven by what's likely to happen with treasury yields more so than any compression in bond credit spreads. So 5% kind of as a starting point. And if we do see yields decline, I think you could add on to that. Depending upon the magnitude of the decline, it's not out of the realm to witness a double digit total return possibility for investment-grade corporates next year. So we do remain most preferred. And again, that value proposition coming from the yield that investors can obtain.

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