Trump, Europe, Ukraine and the uncertain world order | Ian Bremmer
Feb 27, 2025
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Ian Bremmer, a prominent political scientist and founder of Eurasia Group, shares his insights on the shifting global order post-Trump. He discusses the strained U.S.-Europe relationship and the geopolitical implications for Ukraine amid increasing tensions with Russia and China. Bremmer highlights the rise of far-right movements and their impact on democracy, as well as the ramifications of U.S. foreign policy on international relations. He warns against rushed decisions in governance and emphasizes the importance of diversity in fostering stability.
The U.S. is experiencing a shift in its foreign policy focus away from Europe, raising concerns about NATO and collective security.
Nationalist sentiments and dissatisfaction with the political system are rising in Germany, particularly among younger voters and in former East Germany.
Ukraine's strategic position is precarious amidst evolving U.S. foreign policy, heightening risks regarding its territorial integrity and future negotiations.
Deep dives
U.S. Global Standing and Economic Strength
The United States maintains a strong global position, marked by a robust economy that outperforms other G7 nations as it navigates the aftermath of the pandemic. While the U.S. competes closely with China in technology, it remains well ahead of all other countries militarily, being the only nation capable of projecting power globally. The U.S. dollar retains its status as the world’s reserve currency without a significant challenger. However, despite these strengths, America's political landscape is shifting, leading to a diminishing interest in supporting global alliances, collective security, and democracy promotion.
Shifting Focus Away from Europe
There is a growing sentiment within the U.S. that Europe is no longer the center of its foreign policy focus, as illustrated by a notable speech from a U.S. official during the Munich Security Conference. The official accused European leaders of stifling free speech and highlighted internal issues within European democracies, signaling a departure from traditional U.S. support for transatlantic relations and collaborative security efforts. This rhetoric, coupled with actions like refusing to meet key European leaders, indicates a potential shift in the dynamics of U.S.-European relations. Such developments raise concerns for the future of NATO and collective security in Europe.
The Rise of Right-Wing Nationalism in Germany
The Alternative for Germany (AFD) party is gaining traction in the political landscape, particularly in former East Germany, showcasing a rise in nationalist sentiments and dissatisfaction with the existing political system. This shift is fueled by frustration with economic stagnation and a sense of alienation among voters in those regions. The party’s support among younger voters illustrates the emerging demographic divisions, where the right-wing narrative resonates strongly in specific areas. Analysts warn that this trend could have profound implications for Germany's future governance and European unity.
Geopolitical Risks in Ukraine
Ukraine faces heightened strategic risks amid shifting U.S. foreign policy, particularly regarding potential backchannel dealings between the U.S. and Russia that may sideline Ukrainian interests in future negotiations. The Ukrainian president recently indicated a willingness to negotiate membership in NATO, emphasizing the urgency of their self-determination. Such statements reflect the precarious position Ukraine is in, largely dependent on external support while navigating diplomatic challenges. The risk of an unfavorable resolution involving its territorial integrity looms as U.S. perspectives on military aid and alliances continue to evolve.
Challenges to Democracy and Governance
Concerns are growing over the integrity of democratic processes and governance in the U.S., particularly regarding the influence of wealth and power on political systems. The intertwining of individual interests among billionaires and policymakers raises questions about accountability and the collective good. The erosion of civic engagement and the rise of a more atomized society further complicate the landscape of democracy in America. As the U.S. navigates these challenges, the increasing power of a few could threaten the foundational democratic principles that have historically defined the country.
Headlines have been swirling as President Trump enters his second month back in office and his policies come into focus. In this urgent, fast-paced conversation, political scientist Ian Bremmer defines what we should pay attention to, digging into a newly fractured US-Europe relationship, the potential future of Ukraine and moves in Gaza, China and within the United States itself. (This interview, hosted by TED’s Helen Walters, was recorded on February 24, 2025.)
