Gavin Leech, an expert in personal development and behavior change, discusses topics like choosing our identity, failed psychology replications, the effectiveness of growth mindset, challenges of forecasting, and ethical concerns of AI simulations.
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Quick takeaways
Personal transformation is possible through interventions like removing distractions and exploring new hobbies.
The replication crisis in psychology highlights the need for more rigorous research practices and standards.
Forecasting has struggled to gain widespread acceptance due to resistance from experts, slow institutional change, and other factors.
Deep dives
The Potential for Personal Change and Identity
Can individuals change their personality and preferences? While there may be a belief that people's identity is fixed, there are examples of individuals radically changing aspects of themselves. Interventions such as removing distractions, like video games, or immersing oneself in new hobbies or interests can lead to significant personal transformation. Additionally, one's social circle and exposure to different groups can also influence the development of new traits and preferences.
The Replication Crisis in Psychology
The replication crisis in psychology highlights the challenges in conducting and reproducing research. Many well-known effects and theories in psychology have failed to replicate or have yielded smaller effects than originally claimed. This crisis has led to a reevaluation of research practices and standards, and a recognition that more rigor is needed to ensure the reliability and validity of psychological findings.
The Challenges of Forecasting and Getting People to Listen
Forecasting and prediction markets offer valuable tools for making informed decisions, but face challenges in gaining widespread acceptance and adoption. Despite the advantages of accurate forecasting, the field has not gained significant traction in policy-making or other domains. Reasons for this lack of uptake include the relatively small advantage that forecasting offers over traditional methods, resistance from established experts and institutions, and the slow pace of institutional change. Additionally, other factors like political considerations and the desire for clear and unambiguous narratives may contribute to the reluctance to embrace forecasts.
AI Simulations: Ethical Concerns and Impacts
In this podcast episode, the hosts delve into the world of AI and its ability to simulate specific people. They discuss the potential ethical concerns and the impact of this technology. As AI simulations become more realistic, it is important for us to be vigilant and mindful of how we use and interact with them. While harnessing the benefits of this technology, we must also respect privacy and individuality.
Navigating the News on a Budget
In response to a listener's question about keeping up with the news without expensive subscriptions, the hosts recommend using a service like Flipside. This service provides one news story a day from different perspectives, including the left, right, and sometimes libertarian. This approach ensures coverage of major stories while filtering out less important news. Focusing on significant events helps to stay informed without overwhelming oneself with constantly changing news.
Can we really deeply change who we are? Can we choose our preferences, intrinsic values, or personality more generally? What are some interventions people might use to make big changes in their lives? Why might it be harder to be a generalist than a specialist? What are some of the most well-known "findings" from the social sciences that have failed to replicate? Do some replications go too far? Should we just let Twitter users take over the peer-review process? Why hasn't forecasting made major inroads into (e.g.) government yet? Why does it seem like companies sometimes commission forecasts and then ignore them? How worried should we be about deepfakes?
Gavin Leech cofounded the consultancy Arb Research. He's also a PhD candidate in AI at the University of Bristol, a head of camp at the European Summer Programme on Rationality, and a blogger at gleech.org. He's internet famous for collecting hundreds of failed replications in psychology and for having processed most of Isaac Asimov's nonfiction of the mid-twentieth-century to score his predictive performance.
Amendments:
Gavin says: "Google shut down their 2007 market, Prophit, but they started another one in 2020 called Gleangen. It's also not going well."