The better mousetrap fallacy

10 snips

Sep 12, 2024

In this discussion, Andy Lubershane, head of research at Energy Impact Partners and a climate tech expert, unpacks the 'better mousetrap fallacy.' He argues that in sectors like carbon removal and nuclear, focusing on scaling existing technologies often yields better results than chasing new breakthroughs. They explore how scaling can drive down costs, analyze the necessity of innovation in batteries, and tackle the regulatory hurdles in nuclear energy. Additionally, they highlight the challenge of having too many direct air capture technologies without sufficient buyers.

Ask episode

AI Snips

Chapters

Transcript

Episode notes

INSIGHT

Two Tech Development Approaches

There are two approaches to tech development: problem-first or technology-first.
The latter risks the "better mousetrap fallacy"–creating unneeded solutions.

INSIGHT

Better Mousetrap Fallacy

The better mousetrap fallacy traps industries into seeking innovations when existing tech suffices.
Over-investing in unneeded advancements can hinder necessary scaling and deployment.

ANECDOTE

Solar PV Scaling

Solar PV's success stemmed from scaling crystalline silicon, not continuous innovation.
This scaling pattern repeats in other climate tech like lithium-ion batteries.

Get the Snipd Podcast app to discover more snips from this episode

Get the app

Deploy or innovate? Scale up an existing technology or develop a breakthrough? Build, build, build, or invent a better mousetrap?

The question isn’t which strategy to follow; it’s which strategy to use in which sector. Virtually no one thinks that solar needs brand new tech breakthroughs to scale. Crystalline silicone took the lion’s share of the market years ago from cadmium telluride, amorphous silicon, CIGS and other early solar technologies.

But in carbon removal, batteries, nuclear, and other industries — should we develop new technologies, or scale up a promising few?

In this episode, Shayle talks to his colleague Andy Lubershane about the better mousetrap fallacy in climate tech. Andy is the head of research and a partner at Energy Impact Partners. He argues that, in certain industries, investing in building a better mousetrap is a bad use of capital, and that too many options causes analysis paralysis for would-be customers.

Shayle and Andy cover topics like:

How scaling up technologies – as Chinese manufacturers have scaled up solar and batteries – drives down cost
Why new technologies that aren’t five or 10 times better than an incumbent may fail to beat the cost curve
Whether batteries need breakthroughs, and how Andy thinks about lithium-iron-phosphate, sodium-ion, thermal, and iron-air
Why Andy thinks that the Nuclear Regulatory Commissions should license more new projects than new technologies
The challenge of having more direct air capture technologies than buyers

Recommended resources

Catalyst: The cost of nuclear
Latitude Media: Is large-scale nuclear poised for a comeback?
Catalyst: Seeking the holy grail of batteries
Catalyst: Growing the carbon dioxide removal market

Catalyst is brought to you by Kraken, the advanced operating system for energy. Kraken is helping utilities offer excellent customer service and develop innovative products and tariffs through the connection and optimization of smart home energy assets. Already licensed by major players across the globe, including Origin Energy, E.ON, and EDF, Kraken can help you create a smarter, greener grid. Visit kraken.tech.

Catalyst is brought to you by Anza, a revolutionary platform enabling solar and energy storage equipment buyers and developers to save time, increase profits, and reduce risk. Instantly see pricing, product, and counterparty data and comparison tools. Learn more at go.anzarenewables.com/latitude.

Catalyst is brought to you by Antenna Group, the global leader in integrated marketing, public relations, creative, and public affairs for energy and climate brands. If you're a startup, investor, or enterprise that's trying to make a name for yourself, Antenna Group's team of industry insiders is ready to help tell your story and accelerate your growth engine. Learn more at antennagroup.com.