Catalyst with Shayle Kann

James McGinniss, founder and CEO of David Energy, builds plug-in distributed energy systems for homes and small businesses. He explains why simple plug-in batteries and balcony solar can slash soft costs and scale fast. They discuss regulatory gray areas, Germany’s rapid adoption, commercial demand‑charge savings, and future appliance-integrated storage.

Nat Bullard, a veteran energy analyst and co-founder of Halcyon, joins for a deep dive into decarbonization trends. They explore the surprising resilience of clean energy stocks and discuss the dramatic drop in U.S. energy startup investments. Bullard details the global oil oversupply's impact on prices and highlights China's growing dominance in vehicle production. Additionally, they examine Australia's rapid adoption of residential battery storage, illustrating key shifts in the energy landscape.

Tom Burton, Chair of the Sustainable Energy and Infrastructure Practice at Mintz, brings nearly three decades of experience in clean energy. He discusses the current state of the energy transition, calling it a 'rain delay' with a surge of projects followed by a thinning pipeline post-2026. Political factors complicate this landscape, as federal hostility and permitting challenges create risks for developers. Burton explains which companies are most vulnerable, and how data centers are shifting to energy-first deals amidst rising demand and investment uncertainties.

Nat Bullard, a seasoned energy and climate analyst and co-founder of Halcyon, shares his insights from his latest comprehensive report on decarbonization. He highlights China's electrification surge, rising from 3% to 30% since 1970, and discusses why electricity spending remains stable despite oil's volatility. Bullard also reveals the staggering backlog of gas turbine orders in Texas and the soaring capital costs for new power plants, comparing current tech investments to past monumental projects. Additionally, he tackles diverging load forecasts and global drivers behind electricity demand.

Ian Rountree, founder and partner at Cantos, shares insights from his work as an early-stage investor in deep tech. He discusses the dangers of selling technology to large incumbents, exposing the pitfalls of long sales cycles and institutional inertia. Rountree argues that focusing on full-stack companies can be more viable than mere technology licensing, citing mining success stories like Earth AI and KoBold Metals. He emphasizes the value of 'weird' startups and the advantages of commodities, highlighting how they can mitigate risk in a volatile market.

In this engaging discussion, Peter Battaglia, Senior Director of Research at Google DeepMind’s sustainability program, dives into the revolutionary impact of AI on weather forecasting. He explains the challenges of predicting precipitation and wind, emphasizing the limitations of traditional models. Peter reveals how AI leverages novel data sources like social media and smartphones to enhance forecasting accuracy. Discover how these advancements could improve everything from renewable energy integration to disaster response, reshaping our economic decisions.

Anthony Brough, founder and CEO of Dora Partners, shares insights from his energy consultancy specializing in gas turbines. He discusses the dramatic rise in turbine demand amid supply chain bottlenecks, leading to lead times extending beyond four years. Brough explores the effects of past boom-bust cycles on today’s cautious market, the competing demands from aerospace and oil & gas, and the impact of renewables on turbine requirements. He also highlights the industry's readiness for hydrogen and the growing influence of data centers on turbine demand.

Shayle is joined by Ben Lee, a Professor at the University of Pennsylvania and a visiting researcher at Google, focusing on AI systems. They delve into the shift from centralized AI compute to edge inference, essential for latency-sensitive applications like autonomous vehicles. Ben explains the differences between hyperscale, edge, and on-device computing, emphasizing why training will stay centralized. He also highlights the challenges and potential of local data centers, exploring implications for energy consumption and the future landscape of AI applications.

In this engaging discussion, Alex Modon, co-founder and CEO of Unlimited Industries, sheds light on modernizing EPC projects through AI. He reveals how misaligned incentives and outdated contract structures contribute to cost overruns. Alex argues that treating projects like unique snowflakes stifles learning and efficiency. With his startup's innovative platform, he aims to streamline pre-construction processes and enhance design certainty. With an eye on the future, they plan to deliver their first project next year, revolutionizing the construction industry.

In this discussion, Shanu Mathew, a senior vice president at Lazard with expertise in sustainable equity and energy markets, dives into the complex narratives surrounding AI's power bottleneck. He explores how different players—hyperscalers, chip manufacturers, and utilities—each have unique incentives that shape their messaging about energy scarcity. The conversation reveals why equipment makers thrive on promoting bottlenecks and how the dynamics of power pricing impact various sectors. The insights illuminate the intricate balance of interests in this rapidly evolving landscape.