Five big questions about the future of energy

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Oct 23, 2025

In this enlightening conversation, Andy Lubershane, Head of Research at Energy Impact Partners, delves into the future of energy shaped by AI-driven electricity demand. He discusses how algorithmic efficiency and off-grid data centers could flip current supply constraints to oversupply. Andy identifies potential winners, like utilities, and losers reliant on cheap energy. He evaluates the prospects of nuclear reactor designs and enhanced geothermal, and explores the challenges facing grid-enhancing technologies, raising critical questions about tomorrow's energy landscape.

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INSIGHT

Persistent Supply Constraint Through 2030

The US is currently supply-constrained on electricity, driven largely by AI data center demand and interconnection bottlenecks.
Andy and Shayle think the supply shortfall will likely persist through 2030 absent major demand shocks or supply bypasses like off-grid builds.

INSIGHT

Demand Could Collapse From Efficiency Or Off-Grid Moves

Algorithmic efficiency and on-device inference could dramatically reduce data center electricity demand.
Off-grid data centers (solar+battery+backup) could also bypass the grid and change load forecasts if deployed at scale.

ADVICE

Favor Power Suppliers; Caution Large Electrification Projects

Utilities and vendors of transformers, switchgear, and turbines will likely benefit from AI-driven load growth.
Large industrial consumers that rely on low-cost grid power should avoid assuming easy access to new capacity or cheap rates.

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We’ve covered AI’s massive power appetite in depth over the past year – with good reason. It’s the driving force behind much of the change and uncertainty in the energy world right now, from the error bars around our demand for electricity to the lineup of technologies vying to meet that demand.

In this episode Shayle talks to his colleague Andy Lubershane, head of research and partner at Energy Impact Partners, about five big questions arising in this uncertain load-growth environment. They cover topics like:

The underappreciated factors that could flip the supply crunch to oversupply, like algorithmic efficiency gains, on-device inference, and off-grid data centers

The winners of the AI-drive power boom, including utilities and grid equipment suppliers, and the potential losers like industry that relies on cheap power

Whether there will be a “Cambrian explosion” or consolidation of nuclear reactors designs

The prospects for enhanced geothermal after Fervo’s Cape Station comes online

The future of grid-enhancing technologies like advanced conductors and dynamic line ratings, and whether they will make it out of “utility pilot hell”

Resources:

Steel for Fuel: Why does nobody know how much energy AI will consume?

Open Circuit: How do we know if we’re in an AI bubble?

Catalyst: The US nuclear groundswell

Catalyst: How geothermal gets built

Latitude Media: In Georgia, stakeholders still can’t agree on data center load growth numbers

Credits: Hosted by Shayle Kann. Produced and edited by Daniel Woldorff. Original music and engineering by Sean Marquand. Stephen Lacey is our executive editor.

Catalyst is brought to you by EnergyHub. EnergyHub helps utilities build next-generation virtual power plants that unlock reliable flexibility at every level of the grid. See how EnergyHub helps unlock the power of flexibility at scale, and deliver more value through cross-DER dispatch with their leading Edge DERMS platform, by visiting energyhub.com.

Catalyst is brought to you by Bloom Energy. AI data centers can’t wait years for grid power—and with Bloom Energy’s fuel cells, they don’t have to. Bloom Energy delivers affordable, always-on, ultra-reliable onsite power, built for chipmakers, hyperscalers, and data center leaders looking to power their operations at AI speed. Learn more by visiting BloomEnergy.com.