Unburdened By What Has Been | GoodFellows: John H. Cochrane, Niall Ferguson, H.R. McMaster, and Bill Whalen | Hoover Institution
Jul 25, 2024
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Hoover senior fellows Niall Ferguson, John Cochrane, and H.R. McMaster discuss Trump's close call with assassination, Biden's sudden exit from the race, and Harris emerging as a potential Democratic nominee. They explore the impact on party strategies and Trump's influence on the GOP, analyzing J.D. Vance's political prospects and cautioning on Biden's term pitfalls. Speculations include Biden's future actions, potential shocks before the election, and readiness for unforeseen events.
Biden's presidency faces challenges from narrow margins and policy mistakes affecting popularity.
Forecasts uncertainty with potential shocks including political volatility, economic shifts, and geopolitical events.
Predicts a close and contentious future election with unforeseen third-party candidates potentially influencing outcomes.
Acknowledges unpredictability of economic impacts, market shocks, volatility, and potential instability amid recent events.
Deep dives
Biden's Presidency Challenges
Biden's presidency faced challenges due to narrow margins in Congress and early policy mistakes that affected his popularity. Despite positive economic indicators, like low unemployment rates, the public remains critical, highlighting inflation concerns and controversial policy decisions.
Potential Political Violence
Forecasts uncertainty about potential shocks to the system, with expectations of political volatility, economic shifts, and the possibility of political violence or major geopolitical events, like China's increasing aggression with the Philippines.
Future Presidential Election Impact
Predicts a close and contentious future presidential election, where unforeseen third-party candidates may play a crucial role in determining the outcome, echoing historical instances like the 1968 elections.
Uncertain Economic Market
Acknowledges the unpredictability of economic impacts, such as market shocks, reflecting market volatility and potential instability, particularly evident in recent economic events.
Key Events Likely Enroute
Anticipates major events shaping the political landscape, potentially involving large-scale terrorist incidents, campus protests, economic fluctuations, or other unforeseen crisis situations that could significantly influence the current political environment.
Recommendations for Future Preparedness
Highlights the importance of vigilance and preparedness for large-scale shocks or unexpected events, stressing the need to monitor political, economic, and security developments amidst increasing global tensions and uncertainties.
Podcast Wrap-Up and Future Plans
Concludes the emergency Goodfellows podcast discussion by outlining upcoming shows, encouraging audience engagement through questions, and promoting subscription to the Hoover Institution's various content offerings for continued insights and updates in current affairs.
An already surreal political year becomes all the more quizzical as former president Donald Trump literally dodges an assassin’s bullet soon before making a surprise pick of Ohio senator J. D. Vance as his running mate; followed by President Biden unexpectedly ending his reelection bid and Vice President Kamala Harris swiftly becoming the Democratic Party’s presumptive presidential nominee. Hoover senior fellows Niall Ferguson, John Cochrane, and H.R. McMaster do their best to make sense of these summertime blockbusters, including whether Harris alters her party’s course (triangulate or double down on the past four years?); the pros and cons of Trump-brand nationalism and that philosophy’s hold over a restyled Republican Party; Vance’s qualifications for national office; plus cautionary tales from Biden’s lone presidential term and the chances of more surprises to come before Election Day in America.
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