Joshua Steinman, former military officer who served as Deputy Assistant to President Trump and Senior Director for Cyber (2017-2021), now co-founder of Galvanick, joins Erik Torenberg and AI scout Nathan Labenz for a discussion on the AI arms race. They focus on US-China relations, the rate of AI development, and the global implications of a technological arms race. 

Should the US and China work together to prevent a future of AI-powered warfare, or is a conflict inevitable?

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🎙️ This Won't Last - Eavesdrop on Keith Rabois, Kevin Ryan, Logan Bartlett, and Zach Weinberg's monthly backchannel. They unpack their hottest takes on the future of tech, business, venture, investing, and politics.

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References mentioned:

• Systems Confrontation and System Destruction Warfare: How the Chinese People's Liberation Army Seeks to Wage Modern Warfare
• 2024 Global Threat Report | 2024 Cyber Threat Report

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Follow on X:

@JoshuaSteinman

@eriktorenberg

@turpentinemedia

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TIMESTAMPS:

(00:00) Intro

(00:16) Reflections on previous episode

(03:31) Discussion on AI and Energy Concerns

(05:57) AI Arms Race Concerns and China's Plans

(09:49) Distributed Training and Rhetoric

(12:10) Ashenbrenner Model and Benefit Sharing

(15:54) Josh's Experience with Trump and Media Misrepresentation

(18:22) Public Perception of Trump and Media Bias

(23:07) Reasons for Disparaging Trump and the Dynamics of Power

(28:41) China's Nature and Response to China

(31:08) AI Concerns, Energy, and Corporate Power

(36:02) Tail Risk, Slaughterbots, and Political Power

(38:27) Arms Reduction Treaties and Reality

(42:05) Decommissioning Nuclear Weapons and AI Arms Race

(45:32) Semiconductor Policy and AI Future

(47:35) Slaughterbots, AI Control, and Trust-Building

(50:18) Olive Branches and China's Leadership

(51:52) Rand Corporation Report and Private Speeches

(55:13) The Declining Barriers to Entry in Violence

(58:48) Einstein Quote and Nuclear Weapons

(1:00:36) Wrap