Politix Who wins? Who loses? And why?
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Dec 3, 2025 
Lakshya Jain, a political analyst known for his innovative 'wins above replacement' model, joins to discuss the nuances of candidate performance in politics. They delve into the concept of 'down-ballot lag,' highlighting how voters react differently at various levels. Jain reveals that popular politicians like AOC often underperform, while lesser-known candidates can excel. The conversation also explores why electoral success can be misleading and the importance of evaluating candidates beyond mere visibility.
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Measuring Candidate Quality Beyond Raw Wins
- Wins Above Replacement isolates candidate effect by adjusting for incumbency and presidential/ statewide environment.
- Lakshya Jain built the model to tell who truly adds votes beyond structural advantages.
Good Performers Can Still Lose In Bad Cycles
- Strong overperformers often lose in bad national environments, so impressive finishes can coincide with losses.
- Matthew uses John Tester's close losses under headwinds to show overperformance doesn't guarantee wins.
Down-Ballot Lag Shapes Local Outcomes
- Voters switch at the top of the ticket first and down-ballot loyalty decays slowly, a phenomenon called down-ballot lag.
- Jain and Matthew quantify this using past presidential swings to predict how local voting sticks to old patterns.