Overperformers often lose in bad years

Brian is adventuring in South America, so Matt is joined by Lakshya Jain of The Argument and Split Ticket to talk about his Wins Above Replacement calculations, which politicians are good at winning, and what we know about them.

In the episode, Matt and Lakshya discuss:

* The importance of “downballot lag” in assessing candidate quality.

* Why AOC and Ritchie Torres are both overrated by their fans.

* While highly viral members of congress tend to underperform, while many electoral superstars are relatively anonymous.

Then, for paid subscribers, what can really be learned from Zohran Mamdani, a politician who won a difficult race despite being less popular than many of the people he bested in his primary? What’s the point of identifying over performing politicians in the first place? What’s Rashida Tlaib doing right?

All that, plus the full Politix archive are available to paid subscribers—just upgrade your subscription and pipe full episodes directly to your favorite podcast app via your own private feed.