GD POLITICS Democrats Are Cleaning Up In Special Elections
Sep 8, 2025
Nathaniel Rakich, a savvy data journalist and political analyst, teams up with Mary Radcliffe, a sharp data scientist and political analyst, to dissect the shifting political landscape. They dive into the implications of the upcoming special election in Virginia's 11th district and how Democrats are over-performing. The duo also unpacks job market trends and public sentiment regarding Trump's economic influence, while exploring dire population trends that could reshape the Electoral College for Democrats in the next decade.
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Democrats' Strong Special Election Run
- Democrats have overperformed in special elections this year by double digits compared to recent baselines.
- That pattern echoes 2017–2018 special election trends that preceded Democratic gains in midterms.
Use Blended Baselines For Benchmarks
- Special election margins are compared to recent presidential results to assess party performance.
- Blending multiple past elections yields a more stable partisan baseline than a single-year comparison.
Benchmark With Two-Cycle Averages
- Favor a blended baseline (recent two presidential cycles) rather than just 2024 or 2020 for fairer comparisons.
- Hedge against reversion-to-mean by including older results in your benchmark.
