Forward Guidance This Bull Market Has Legs | Weekly Roundup
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Oct 3, 2025 This week, the hosts tackle the potential implications of a government shutdown on markets and the troubling signs from weak labor data. They dive into how AI might boost productivity despite rising youth unemployment and explore intriguing links between asset inflation and declining fertility rates. Discussion heats up around whether current market dynamics could lead to a tech-style bubble and the possibilities of a risk-asset melt-up. They also consider the potential impact of fiscal measures on equities and the shifting landscape of market leadership.
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Shutdown Won't Move Markets
- The hosts see the government shutdown as market-irrelevant because markets prioritize private liquidity and policy actions.
- Felix and Tyler expect missing economic data to remove short-term downside catalysts and support risk assets.
Labor Weakness And AI Tension
- Private payrolls (ADP) show weakness, validating labor-market softening separate from BLS data.
- Hosts link declining job openings and tech hiring cuts to structural shifts and potential productivity offsets from AI.
Dad Uses Grok For Kids And Work
- Tyler describes using Grok/ChatGPT in the car to invent kids' games and to produce master's-level work product.
- He uses this to illustrate tangible AI productivity gains and personal unease about rapid change.