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Future of Life Institute Podcast

How Close Are We to AGI? Inside Epoch's GATE Model (with Ege Erdil)

Mar 28, 2025
Ege Erdil, a senior researcher at Epoch AI, dives deep into the fascinating realm of AI development and the new GATE model. He explores how evolution and brain efficiency shape our understanding of AGI requirements. Ege discusses the economic impacts of AI on labor markets and wages, highlighting which jobs are most vulnerable to automation. The conversation also touches on Moravec’s Paradox and the challenges of training complex AI models with long-term planning capabilities, emphasizing the uncertainty surrounding AI timelines and future advancements.
01:34:33

Episode guests

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Quick takeaways

  • The GATE model emphasizes the critical role of compute scaling in advancing automation and driving economic outcomes for AI development.
  • Understanding the relationship between R&D and automation highlights that without resource allocation and productivity scaling, technological advancement alone won’t ensure economic growth.

Deep dives

The Role of Compute Scaling in Automation

Effective compute scaling is seen as a critical factor in automating tasks within the economy, with each order of magnitude facilitating a percentage increase in automated tasks. Historical observations indicate that scaling has significantly accelerated software progress over recent years, yet merely increasing the number of researchers does not necessarily resolve existing bottlenecks in AI development. The conversation underscores the importance of understanding the broad economic incentives driving this automation and how far along the path of automation we truly are. Furthermore, as projected revenue from AI-related activities indicates rapid growth, the underlying economic output must also scale to achieve intense feedback loops necessary for sustained progress.

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