Josh Younger, senior adviser at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, discusses the complex nature of managing deposit and interest rate risk for banks. The podcast explores the stickiness and duration of bank deposits, deposit betas and banks' timing of higher rates, long-term stability and reactivity of deposits, managing interest rate risk, the relationship between deposit mix and assets, and the impact of deposit duration on bank lending.
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Quick takeaways
Deposits in banks tend to be sticky but their beta, or their movement in relation to market yields, increases as interest rates rise, affecting banks' ability to make fixed-rate loans and impacting credit allocation decisions.
The mix of deposit types, including sticky retail deposits and wholesale deposits with higher betas, impacts a bank's funding cost and its ability to support long-term fixed-rate lending, emphasizing the importance of understanding deposit behavior for effective bank management.
Deep dives
The Impact of Non-Linear Deposit Betas on Banking
This podcast episode explores the non-linear relationship between interest rates and bank deposit betas. Deposits tend to be sticky, meaning people leave their money in banks for extended periods. However, as interest rates rise, the beta, or the degree to which deposit rates move in relation to market yields, increases. This non-linear relationship affects banks' ability to make long-term fixed-rate loans and influences the transmission of monetary policy. Higher deposit betas amplify the bank lending channel, impacting credit allocation decisions and duration capacity constraints. The research highlights the complexity of banking and the challenges in managing interest rate risk.
The Value and Behavior of Bank Deposits
Bank deposits have value based on their sticky nature and the convenience yield they provide individuals for daily transactions. The variability of deposit betas, which are lower than one, generates duration risk for banks. The mix of deposit types, including low beta sticky retail deposits and higher beta wholesale deposits, affects a bank's funding cost and impacts its ability to support long-term fixed-rate lending. The beta of deposits changes as interest rates rise, leading to potential strain on the asset side of the balance sheet and limiting the bank's capacity for duration exposure. The paper emphasizes the importance of understanding deposit behavior and its implications for bank management and the economy.
The Role of Deposit Betas in Monetary Policy Transmission
Deposit betas play a significant role in the transmission of monetary policy. Higher betas create higher expected funding costs for loans, affecting their pricing and quantities. The non-linear relationship between deposit rates and interest rates amplifies the bank lending channel. As rates increase, banks face duration capacity constraints, reducing their ability to support long-term fixed-rate lending, such as mortgages and commercial loans. The research shows that deposit betas have consequential impacts on the bank's asset side and the transmission of monetary policy, influencing credit allocation decisions and lending activity.
The Complexity and Challenges of Banking
The podcast episode sheds light on the complexity of banking, particularly regarding deposit behavior and interest rate risk management. Deposits exhibit non-linear relationships with interest rates, with betas that vary based on deposit type and macroeconomic conditions. Banks strive to maintain an optimal mix of deposit betas to support funding, manage duration risk, and meet regulatory requirements. The paper highlights the ongoing challenges faced by banks in managing interest rate risk, balancing deposit behavior, and navigating the implications for lending and monetary policy. Understanding these dynamics is crucial for effective bank management and policy decision-making.
The rate banks pay on savings accounts hit the headlines earlier this year, when an outflow of deposits contributed to the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and other lenders. Suddenly, the mechanics of how banks attract deposits — and what they actually do with them — became a hot topic. And even before then, there'd been a lot of discussion over why many banks hadn't passed on the surge in benchmark rates to their customers by raising rates on savings accounts. So what exactly do banks use deposits for? How do those deposits behave? And can that behavior change in different interest rate environments? In this episode we speak with Josh Younger, senior adviser at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and formerly at JPMorgan, about his recent research looking at how banks pass on higher interest rates and what it means for their own exposure to interest rates.