Michael Green - Macro Contrarian

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Feb 10, 2022

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INSIGHT

Inelastic Market Hypothesis

The Inelastic Market Hypothesis challenges the Efficient Market Hypothesis by suggesting that individual actors can significantly impact market prices.
Passive managers' actions are perfectly inelastic, meaning they buy or sell regardless of price, influencing market behavior.

INSIGHT

Passive Investing Concerns

Passive investing, like with Vanguard, raises concerns about governance and market dynamics because buying occurs regardless of price.
This behavior differs from most areas of life where price is a major factor in purchasing decisions.

INSIGHT

Scale and Security Lending

Large passive managers like Vanguard and Blackrock operate at such a scale that their security lending can distort cost-to-borrow dynamics.
This can lead to sudden price snaps when share supply is exhausted, unlike traditional lending operations.

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Michael Green stops by The Business Brew to discuss his inelastic market theory, the outlook for inflation, why the market might be too excited about rate normalization, and much more. Michael is a frequent contributor to Real Vision and has done some phenomenal interviews, which can be found on YouTube.

He has been a student of markets and market structure, for nearly 30 years. His proprietary research into the shift from actively managed portfolios and investment funds to systematic passive investment strategies has been presented to the Federal Reserve, the BIS, the IMF and numerous other industry groups and associations.
Michael joined Simplify in April 2021 after serving as Chief Strategist and Portfolio Manager for Logica Capital Advisers, LLC. Prior to Logica, Michael managed macro strategies at Thiel Macro, LLC, an investment firm that manages the personal capital of Peter Thiel. Prior to Thiel, Michael founded Ice Farm Capital, a discretionary global macro hedge fund seeded by Soros Fund Management. From 2006-2014, Michael founded and managed the New York office of Canyon Capital Advisors, a $23B multi-strategy hedge fund based in Los Angeles, CA, where he established their global macro strategies, managing in excess of $5B of exposure across equity, credit, FX, commodity and derivative markets. In addition to his work as a market theorist and portfolio manager, Michael has been noted for his work as a public speaker and financial media participant. He is a graduate of the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania and a CFA holder.

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