Patterns can provide insights on a larger scale but there is often randomness in determining individual paths.
Predicting outcomes of specific individuals remains a challenge despite advancements in machine learning and data collection.
Deep dives
Tara's Path to Redemption
Tara Simmons, a woman with a bleak and troubled past, fights to break free from the patterns of her life. Shawn Hopwood, a lawyer who himself had a criminal history, represents Tara in front of the Washington State Supreme Court. The court must decide whether Tara's committed effort to change means that she can be trusted with a future as a lawyer. While patterns and past behavior are usually seen as indicative of future actions, the court must grapple with the idea that people can change and move beyond their patterns. Tara's journey represents a larger question about the potential for redemption and second chances.
The Power of Patterns
Patterns, both in human behavior and in the world of computing, hold a certain fascination. They offer the promise of predictability and control. However, when it comes to predicting individual outcomes, such as a child's future success or a person's rehabilitative progress, the role of randomness becomes apparent. Many studies, including a large experiment conducted by Princeton researchers, have shown that individual lives are difficult to predict accurately. While patterns can offer valuable insights on a larger scale, there is often a significant amount of randomness in determining the paths of individual lives.
The Quest for Predictability
The desire for predictability is inherent in human nature. We seek patterns and explanations to give us a sense of control and stability. However, the reality is that individual lives are not always easily predictable. Despite advancements in machine learning and the ability to collect vast amounts of data, accurately predicting the outcomes of specific individuals remains a challenge. While structural differences, such as socioeconomic factors, can influence outcomes, there is often a significant element of randomness. Accepting this uncertainty is crucial for fairness and justice, as it challenges our inclination to make deterministic stories about people's lives.
Tara's Second Chance
Tara Simmons, a woman with a troubled past, receives a unanimous decision from the Washington State Supreme Court. Despite her patterns of criminal behavior, the court believes Tara is not at risk of repeating her past actions. This ruling offers Tara a chance for redemption and a new start. While she acknowledges that her position is fortunate, she is grateful for the opportunity to prove that she can break free from her past patterns and live a responsible and successful life. Tara's story represents the possibility of change and the importance of second chances.
A panel of judges sits to decide the fate of the young woman. She's the child of addicts and an ex-addict and ex-felon herself, and she's asking the court to trust her to become an attorney. The outcome of her case hinges on a question we all struggle with: are we destined to repeat our patterns, or do we generally stray in surprising directions? - a question increasingly relevant in an age when algorithms are trying to predict everything about our behavior. CONTENT WARNING: This episode contains descriptions of sexual abuse.
