The Pattern Problem
Invisibilia
Is This a Good Prediction?
The results of a contest to see which computer model could predict the outcomes of 15-year-olds were displayed on a white screen. Mathew Morris: Was it really disappointing? Or is that just an accurate representation of how predictable individual lives like yours or mine are? That's what we find everywhere. But we abhor randomness. They say like nature abhor. Abhors a vacuum. Humans abhor random we like deterministic stories. Identifying a clear pattern in the facts in that way allows us to move through the world with some confidence.
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