Excess Returns Nine Timeless Lessons from 2024 | Larry Swedroe
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Feb 21, 2025 
Larry Swedroe, a seasoned finance expert, shares nine crucial lessons investors learned from the unpredictable landscape of 2024. He unpacks why market forecasts often fail, debunks the 'Sell in May and Go Away' myth, and highlights the vital role of diversification. With insights on the cyclical nature of asset returns and the pitfalls of active management, Larry emphasizes patience in investment strategies. His engaging anecdotes and practical advice provide a roadmap for escaping common behavioral biases and building resilient portfolios.
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Interpreting Market Forecasts
- Treat market forecasts as medians of wide potential outcomes.
- Ensure your portfolio can withstand all possible outcomes, including the worst-case scenarios.
Valuations and Market Timing
- Valuations are the best market predictor, but don't use them for market timing.
- Run Monte Carlo simulations to check portfolio success odds.
Long-Term Underperformance
- There are long periods (13-17 years) when the S&P 500 underperformed T-bills.
- Large-cap growth stocks underperformed 20-year treasuries for 40 years (1969-2008).
