You’re Waiting for the Bubble to Burst | Jan van Eck on Why It Already Has

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Jan 25, 2026

Jan van Eck, CEO of VanEck and longtime ETF and macro strategist, offers a big-picture take on markets. He discusses why 2026 may be clearer for investors. Conversations cover AI-driven compute demand and semiconductor winners. He explains gold’s renewed role in a multipolar world, the risks of putting illiquid assets in daily-liquid vehicles, and why thinking in decades boosts conviction.

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INSIGHT

Deficits Are Falling, Visibility Rising

Federal fiscal deficits are on a clear downward trajectory heading into 2026.
That reduction reduces long-term market stress and raises visibility for investors.

INSIGHT

Fed Turning Less Interventionist

Scott Bessent signaled a less interventionist Federal Reserve and called current rates "normal."
A less rescue-oriented Fed reduces the chance of an extreme monetary shock and changes market expectations.

ADVICE

Invest By Decade, Not Quarter

Think in decades, not quarters, to gain higher conviction in major trends.
Overweight long-term structural winners like India rather than relying on current-day indices.

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In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with Jan van Eck, CEO of VanEck, to discuss how long-term macro forces are shaping markets and investment opportunities. Jan shares how his firm thinks about government spending, monetary policy, and technology, why he believes investors have more visibility than they realize heading into 2026, and how trends like artificial intelligence, gold, and global asset allocation could redefine portfolios over the next decade and beyond.

Topics covered in this episode include

How VanEck uses fiscal policy, monetary policy, and technology as core macro pillars
Why declining fiscal deficits may reduce long-term stress on markets
The case for a less interventionist Federal Reserve and what it means for investors
Why thinking in decades, not quarters, can lead to higher conviction investing
Artificial intelligence as a transformative economic force and its impact on semiconductors, energy, and productivity
The AI capex buildout, compute shortages, and lessons from past infrastructure booms
Gold’s resurgence as a global store of value in a multipolar world
The difference between owning physical gold and gold mining stocks
Risks and opportunities in private credit and business development companies
Why illiquid assets may not belong in daily liquidity vehicles like ETFs
India’s long-term growth potential and implications for global portfolios
How family ownership influences VanEck’s long-term investment approach
Behavioral mistakes investors make and why long-term charts matter
Lessons Jan would teach the average investor based on decades of market experience

Timestamps
00:00 Introduction and VanEck’s macro framework
02:25 Translating macro views into product development
04:34 2026 outlook and why visibility may mean risk on
06:00 Fiscal deficits, interest rates, and market stress
07:00 The future of Federal Reserve intervention
10:48 Long-term investing versus short-term predictions
14:00 India, global growth, and asset allocation
19:00 Artificial intelligence, compute demand, and semiconductors
24:00 AI, jobs, and economic impact
29:00 AI capex, market concentration, and historical analogies
38:31 Private credit risks and liquidity considerations
40:35 Illiquid assets and ETFs
42:56 Gold, global currencies, and long-term trends
47:26 Gold miners versus physical gold
52:14 Contrarian opportunities and underloved markets
52:47 Advantages of a family-owned investment firm
56:06 Tokenization, blockchain, and market structure
59:45 Investor psychology and long-term charts
01:02:05 Lessons for the average investor