AI capex, historical analogies, and profitability

In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with Jan van Eck, CEO of VanEck, to discuss how long-term macro forces are shaping markets and investment opportunities. Jan shares how his firm thinks about government spending, monetary policy, and technology, why he believes investors have more visibility than they realize heading into 2026, and how trends like artificial intelligence, gold, and global asset allocation could redefine portfolios over the next decade and beyond.

Topics covered in this episode include

• How VanEck uses fiscal policy, monetary policy, and technology as core macro pillars

• Why declining fiscal deficits may reduce long-term stress on markets

• The case for a less interventionist Federal Reserve and what it means for investors

• Why thinking in decades, not quarters, can lead to higher conviction investing

• Artificial intelligence as a transformative economic force and its impact on semiconductors, energy, and productivity

• The AI capex buildout, compute shortages, and lessons from past infrastructure booms

• Gold’s resurgence as a global store of value in a multipolar world

• The difference between owning physical gold and gold mining stocks

• Risks and opportunities in private credit and business development companies

• Why illiquid assets may not belong in daily liquidity vehicles like ETFs

• India’s long-term growth potential and implications for global portfolios

• How family ownership influences VanEck’s long-term investment approach

• Behavioral mistakes investors make and why long-term charts matter

• Lessons Jan would teach the average investor based on decades of market experience

Timestamps
00:00 Introduction and VanEck’s macro framework
02:25 Translating macro views into product development
04:34 2026 outlook and why visibility may mean risk on
06:00 Fiscal deficits, interest rates, and market stress
07:00 The future of Federal Reserve intervention
10:48 Long-term investing versus short-term predictions
14:00 India, global growth, and asset allocation
19:00 Artificial intelligence, compute demand, and semiconductors
24:00 AI, jobs, and economic impact
29:00 AI capex, market concentration, and historical analogies
38:31 Private credit risks and liquidity considerations
40:35 Illiquid assets and ETFs
42:56 Gold, global currencies, and long-term trends
47:26 Gold miners versus physical gold
52:14 Contrarian opportunities and underloved markets
52:47 Advantages of a family-owned investment firm
56:06 Tokenization, blockchain, and market structure
59:45 Investor psychology and long-term charts
01:02:05 Lessons for the average investor