Is Kamala Harris a Favorite for 2028? (with Bill Scher)
Dec 17, 2024
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Bill Scher, a political commentator for the Washington Monthly, shares his insights on the shifting political landscape ahead of the 2028 presidential election. He argues that Kamala Harris may not have broad appeal beyond her Democratic base and suggests her best option might be a gubernatorial run in California. The discussion highlights the enduring popularity of Trump, the internal conflicts within the GOP, and speculates on potential Democratic contenders. Scher emphasizes the importance of authenticity and effective communication in shaping voter perceptions.
Bill Scher critiques Kamala Harris's chances for the presidency by highlighting her limited connection with voters outside the Democratic base.
The podcast underscores the critical need for effective messaging from politicians, especially regarding economic narratives, to build voter confidence.
Future presidential contenders like Ruben Gallego and Andy Beshear may outshine established figures through effective campaign strategies and distinct voter appeal.
Deep dives
Bill Scher's Reflections on Predictions
Bill Scher shares insights on his previous predictions for the 2024 election cycle, highlighting his significant misjudgment regarding inflation and its impact on the Democratic Party's narrative. He reflects on historical instances where presidents like Ronald Reagan and Barack Obama successfully harnessed economic improvement to bolster their credibility. Scher concludes that President Biden failed to communicate effectively about economic challenges, ultimately diminishing the Democrats' ability to take credit for progress. This misalignment between perception and reality has critical implications for how political narratives are crafted and communicated.
The Consequences of Messaging Missteps
The discussion emphasizes the importance of effective messaging from politicians, particularly during challenging economic times. Scher argues that Biden's administration missed opportunities to address inflation candidly, confusing voters and undermining confidence in their economic management. Instead of framing inflation as a lingering consequence of previous administrations, Biden attempted to minimize its significance, leading to public skepticism about the administration's competence. The conversation reveals how nuanced messaging can significantly alter the political landscape and voter perception of leadership.
AOC's Leadership Aspirations
The episode reveals the challenges faced by Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez in her pursuit of a leadership position within Congress. Despite her significant influence and popularity, she was overlooked in favor of Jerry Connolly for a key committee role, suggesting a persistent power dynamic in the Democratic Party. Scher and the host discuss the implications of this decision for AOC's political future and her ability to connect with mainstream Democratic leadership. The conversation underscores the complexities of navigating party politics and the balance between authenticity and party loyalty.
Future Contenders for the 2028 Election
Speculation regarding potential candidates for the 2028 presidential election highlights several prominent figures, including Kamala Harris, Ruben Gallego, and Andy Beshear. Harris's viability is questioned due to her association with the current administration and the need for her to carve out a distinct identity separate from Biden's presidency. Gallego's successful campaign strategies, along with Beshear's ability to appeal to working-class voters, position them as strong contenders in future Democratic primaries. The conversation reflects on the evolving political landscape and the necessity for candidates to adapt to changing voter dynamics.
Republican Landscape and Inner Conflicts
The dynamics within the Republican Party are discussed, focusing on Ron DeSantis and his complex relationship with Donald Trump. DeSantis's recent political challenges and his exclusion from Trump’s inner circle signal potential vulnerabilities in his 2028 presidential aspirations. The discussion also covers the rise of figures like Brian Kemp, who may emerge as serious contenders based on their ability to navigate party politics and public perception. This examination underscores the significance of loyalty and strategic positioning within the Republican sphere as candidates prepare for the upcoming election cycle.
I don’t think Kamala Harris will ever be president.
I don’t think she has a connection with Americans beyond a core Democratic base who can be easily woo’d by another shiny object. I think she would do best in the one-party state she came from and run for governor of California where she might even pass for the centrist she positioned herself as nationally.
But I may well be wrong. If I am Bill Scher will have told me otherwise.
He believes she enters our four-year cycle to select the next president as the most well positioned Vice President loser in recent American history.
Damning with faint praise? Maybe.
We discuss 2028 and everything we got wrong about the election in this chat!