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Two-thirds of Israeli voters had cast ballots four hours before polls closed Tuesday, the highest turnout at that stage since 1973, according to Axios. Election officials ordered polling stations to accelerate voting after reports of long lines, saying anyone arriving by 10 p.m. local time would be allowed to cast a ballot. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu seeks another term, with 61 seats needed for a parliamentary majority. This is Israel’s first election since the October 7th attacks in 2023.I’m not going to pretend that I’m an expert in the Knesset or Israeli coalitions, which will essentially decide who becomes prime minister. It does seem, at this hour, that Netanyahu will end his extraordinarily consequential reign at the helm of that nation — one that looked like it was over right before October 7th. I don’t know if the guy coming in will make anybody who didn’t like Netanyahu happier. The issues they seem to disagree on are more domestic issues, not what Americans who talk about Israel a lot particularly care about. He’s probably more aligned with Netanyahu on prosecuting the war in Gaza, at the very least. The question would be how far it extends into Iran and what victory against Iran would be defined as.Politics Politics Politics is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.Still, if this is indeed the end for Bibi, it’s been a hell of a ride. I don’t know if anybody other than Ben-Gurion and Golda Meir would be more consequential leaders for that nation, but I’d leave that up to the Israeli scholars. We don’t know the outcome yet, but it does, at least right now, look like curtains for Netanyahu.Meanwhile, President Trump has changed the list of Canadian products subject to an additional 50% tariff, with revisions taking effect Friday, October 30th. A proclamation on the 23rd removes some products from duty and adds others. Republican Susan Collins says nine exempted categories will help Maine’s blueberry, potato, apple and seaweed industries. Those categories include packaging materials, refrigeration equipment and agricultural machinery. The exemptions apply to the additional duty imposed over Canada’s treatment of American vehicles. Separate tariffs remain in place.There’s also late-breaking reporting that negotiations are underway to try to avert some of the steel tariffs between the two countries. I’ve thought this would be brought to a brink and then eventually resolved. I tend to still think that’s the case, but we’re getting a little late in the innings to assume so.Finally, Marco Rubio said street protests wouldn’t produce democracy in Venezuela following opposition leader María Corina Machado’s return to Caracas. Machado is demanding elections in 2027, while U.S. officials want changes to the Supreme Court and Electoral Council, along with progress on debt, before a vote. Rubio said the current authorities were meeting agreed deadlines but didn’t publicly specify an election date, warning against derailing the process.Chapters00:00:00 - Intro00:02:18 - Midterm Map Madness, Part One00:47:52 - Update00:48:26 - Israel’s Elections00:51:16 - Canadian Tariffs00:52:36 - Venezuela00:55:00 - Midterm Map Madness, Part Two01:39:37 - Wrap-up This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.politicspoliticspolitics.com/subscribe

Mike Rogers is trying to tie Abdul El-Sayed to the Muslim Brotherhood, Hamas, Hezbollah and other radical Islamic organizations. El-Sayed isn’t known to be a Muslim Brotherhood member, but unearthed tweets from his sister suggest their mother helped organize or work with the group. Other parts of the attack rely on El-Sayed’s relationship with organizations like CAIR and the allegations Republicans have made against them.Politically, the strategy makes sense. Rogers needs to split Black voters in Detroit and Jewish voters in the suburbs away from the Democratic coalition. He’s trying to make El-Sayed “more Arab” and exploit tensions inside that coalition. El-Sayed clearly understands the reputation problem — he’s already running ads with his white grandparents to reassure voters. But Michigan is reportedly a Democrat-plus-11 environment, and Republicans haven’t won a Senate race there in many years.Politics Politics Politics is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.Compare that with the attack Vivek Ramaswamy is running against Amy Acton in Ohio. His ad effectively asks voters to believe Acton’s estranged mother over her and to believe that a 12-year-old lied about being sexually assaulted. That’s supposed to prove Acton has always been a liar. It’s a deeply ugly message without the same kind of political logic behind it.Trump endorsed the ad on Truth Social, and JD Vance defended it by saying the campaign wouldn’t have run it unless it thought the ad would work. That’s like farting and then defending the smell as proof of success. Vance went even further, trying to sell the gigantic crap on the rug as a feature of the Feng Shui.Ramaswamy is running a bad campaign, and I don’t think he’s going to become governor of Ohio. John Husted is now in peril too, even after Sherrod Brown’s last campaign demonstrated that Ohio is a Republican state. The environment matters, but candidates can still make terrible decisions.Chapters00:00:00 - Intro00:03:45 - Mike Rogers vs. Vivek Strategies00:13:30 - Interview with Abby Turner00:42:11 - Update00:44:27 - DCCC00:45:52 - Susie Wiles00:49:44 - Canada Tariffs00:50:58 - Interview with Ed Tarnowski01:20:11 - Wrap-up This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.politicspoliticspolitics.com/subscribe

I drove from Austin to Waco along I-35, one of the most heavily traveled corridors in Texas, and James Talarico is dominating the billboard game. I don’t love the billboards themselves because the text is too small to read safely from a distance, but the themes are smart and clear: Talarico will protect healthcare, and Talarico will lower costs. One is the issue of the day — affordability — and the other is an issue Democrats are generally trusted on.Ken Paxton was almost nonexistent. The biggest Republican billboard I saw looked like something a random person had purchased: “Democrats now support communism, and Republicans don’t.” That belongs more on your uncle’s Facebook page than a gigantic roadside billboard. I don’t know how much billboards matter, but when these campaigns and their super PACs are spending roughly half a billion dollars, it’s worth noting that one side is buying more of them.Politics Politics Politics is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.The obvious Republican voters I met in Waco knew Paxton, had been in rooms with him, and didn’t like him. They were Cornyn voters and wished they could vote for Cornyn again. But they’re still voting for Paxton because they view Talarico as that odious. Outside Austin, people see the city as a problem and Talarico as a product of that problem. I’ve officially concluded that Paxton is running a bad campaign and deserves to lose. Based solely on his campaign, Talarico should become the next senator from Texas. I still don’t think he will.Now for my semiannual warning: Looking at early-voting trends is bad, and only bad people do it. They don’t reliably predict final results, and partisans use them to create engagement or scare people into voting. That said, Democrats ran through the brick wall on opening day. In North Carolina, Democrats cast roughly 327,000 votes to Republicans’ 151,000. Georgia’s opening-day turnout was up 40 percent from 2022. Iowa Republicans held the majority of returned ballots, while Texas saw nearly record first-day voting. These are good signs for Democrats, but we don’t know whether they represent a continuing freight train or enthusiastic voters casting their ballots early and leaving the rest of the electorate to revert to normal patterns.The dirty ads are also arriving. An anti-Amy Acton video raised her estrangement from her mother, allowing Acton to explain that her mother sided with a man Acton says molested her as a child. That seems like an extraordinary gift to Acton. In Maine, an ad against Troy Jackson includes the lyric, “If he’ll F his own family, he’ll F yours too.” In Texas, an ad attacks Brandon Herrera — the “AK Guy” — for demonstrating weapons connected to high-profile crimes, including the Uvalde shooting in the district he wants to represent. This is playoff-caliber filth.Then there’s the apparent sequel to the unsolicited Texas text messages promoting transgender healthcare. A new flyer presents itself as trans advocacy, directs minors toward legal organizations and out-of-state care information, and advertises events around Texas. I have no idea whether any of it is authentic. But in 2024, we saw one organization run opposing messages on Israel to shake up a race, and that effort was eventually traced to Elon Musk. This is only an unqualified guess — a feeling-the-Force thing — but I suspect America PAC, or a group funded by it, may be behind these messages.Chapters00:00:00 - Intro00:02:59 - Waco00:09:22 - Early Election Results00:13:40 - Crazy Midterm Ads00:22:57 - Andrew Heaton on Libertarians00:58:48 - Update00:59:44 - Ukraine01:03:09 - Republicans’ Red Wall Defense01:06:45 - Supreme Court and Distilling01:07:58 - Laurence Leamer on JFK’s Mistresses01:32:34 - Wrap-up This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.politicspoliticspolitics.com/subscribe

Former Texas House Speaker Dade Phelan recently said, “We’re still running transgender ads, and it’s just not resonating.” Republicans are trying to recreate the most iconic attack of 2024 — Kamala Harris is for they/them, Donald Trump is for you — by targeting James Talarico’s old progressive positions. But if the ads aren’t moving the polls and voters would rather discuss gas prices or inflation, what good are they? Maybe somebody decided to take the left-hand path and raise the issue’s salience another way.Texans have begun receiving messages that say, “Questions about gender-affirming care in Texas? Start here. You can get the care you need,” followed by a link to the Transgender Education Network of Texas. That sounds like something a transgender advocacy organization might send. The problem is that TENT says it didn’t write, authorize, approve, or distribute the messages. The organization says it has received hate and threats, and it has sent cease-and-desist notices to two messaging companies while demanding to know who hired them. Republican State Representative Jeff Leach has asked Attorney General Ken Paxton to investigate.Politics Politics Politics is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.It seems pretty clear what somebody is trying to accomplish. Paxton needs every possible Republican to come home, hold their nose, and vote for him because the issues at stake are supposedly bigger than their dislike of Ken Paxton. I don’t know whether it’ll work, and we don’t yet know who paid for it, but this trick is dirty as hell. Trump is already preparing an explanation for a Paxton loss, naming John Cornyn and Karl Rove as the people he’ll blame. Meanwhile, Talarico just gave an extended television performance without any of the fogginess his critics had insinuated. He aced it 11 out of 10.A Reuters survey also asked 26 Senate campaigns whether they would accept November’s results unconditionally. Fourteen said yes: nine Democrats, one independent, and four Republicans. Both major candidates in Alaska, Iowa, Maine, and New Hampshire agreed. Neither Talarico nor Paxton responded in Texas. This used to be simple. An agreed-upon arbiter called the race, the candidates spoke, and somebody conceded. Now we have little trust in the system and even less interest in rebuilding it. From Trump to Stacey Abrams and everybody in between, candidates who refuse to believe they lost should be shamed. You lost. You’re a loser. Run again and maybe you’ll become a winner.The Justice Department has demanded that California segregate ballots belonging to people federal officials suspect aren’t citizens. California Secretary of State Shirley Weber says her office received no list and was given 48 hours to investigate. Los Angeles election officials received a password-protected thumb drive but hadn’t accessed it because of security protocols, and the Justice Department didn’t say how many people were involved. California disputes the demand’s legal basis and says being flagged doesn’t prove someone is ineligible or voted illegally. This connects directly to the collapse in trust: Trump’s side assumes California permits rampant illegal voting, while liberals have no incentive to treat anything from his administration seriously.Finally, Social Security benefits will rise 3.6 percent in 2027, adding an average of $75 per month to retirement benefits. Nearly 72 million beneficiaries will receive the increase beginning in January, while higher payments for roughly 7.3 million Supplemental Security Income recipients begin December 31. The adjustment is calculated under federal law using an inflation index for urban wage earners and clerical workers. So if you’re looking for good news from inflation, at least Social Security recipients are getting more money.Chapters00:00:00 - Intro00:04:19 - Texas Dirty Trick00:10:28 - Interview with Karol Markowicz00:51:36 - Update00:54:10 - Accepting Election Results00:55:48 - California Ballots00:57:37 - Social Security00:58:49 - Interview with Katie Harbath01:42:29 - Wrap-up This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.politicspoliticspolitics.com/subscribe

A race that should’ve barely garnered any attention outside its home state is turning into one of the hottest of the midterms, as Republican Senator Roger Marshall is in the fight of his life against Democrat Adam Hamilton. Six months ago, Democratic hopes for the Senate were centered on Maine, Ohio, and Michigan, maybe even Florida at the outer edges. Nobody was talking about Kansas. Now Emerson has Hamilton ahead 45–43, the New York Times/Siena poll has the race tied at 45, and YouGov has Hamilton leading 48–45. These are consistent, margin-of-error leads for a Democrat.Marshall is a throwback religious conservative from the pre-Trump era who’s plugged himself into the MAGA universe through faith-and-family politics. He has the votes you’d expect, including a controversial one involving January 6. Hamilton is a centrist Democrat who founded his own church in 1990 with four people in a borrowed space. He’s using that religious background and his charisma as a leader of men to say, “I’m not asking you to vote for a Democrat. I’m asking you to vote for common sense.”Politics Politics Politics is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.Hamilton wants congressional approval for tariffs, more agricultural export promotion, and year-round guest-worker visas. Those positions push directly against Trump’s tariffs and hard-line immigration policies. Marshall, meanwhile, has to defend Trump during what’s being called “Farmageddon.” Diesel prices can only stay this high for so long. Restrictions on selling crops can only remain this punitive before farmers go crazy.Marshall’s medical career has also become a liability. An investigation found that he sued more than 700 patients over unpaid medical debt, and court records showed 81 arrests after people missed court appearances connected to those cases. His side says the collections were necessary to sustain medical care and that nobody was criminally convicted simply for being unable to pay. But Hamilton has an effective ad featuring a woman who says she was arrested while eight months pregnant after missing a payment. “I’m a doctor” is usually a good political pitch. Marshall found a way to make it a negative.This isn’t simply the national environment. Republicans face similar problems with farmers, diesel, and tariffs in Iowa, but Ashley Hinson is still leading her Democratic opponent and running ahead of the Republican gubernatorial candidate. Kansas is the combination of a bad environment and an incumbent who’s never been tested suddenly finding himself in the race of his life. The cavalry is arriving: Marshall has hired Chris Grant of Big Dog Strategies, and the Senate Leadership Fund is bringing in nearly $8.2 million, possibly redirected from Georgia and North Carolina. My gut says Kansas is much closer than it should be but doesn’t tip. Raw political gravity and the Republican registration advantage probably carry Marshall through. Maybe.The broader Republican strategy is now triage. Two Republican super PACs are withdrawing support from Tom Kean Jr. and Mariannette Miller-Meeks, leaving both incumbents without the air cover they expected. Republicans aren’t trying to flip Democratic seats anymore; they’re defending their own and attempting to minimize the losses. Trump is even heading to Wasilla to campaign for Alaska Senator Dan Sullivan against Mary Peltola. Second-term presidents aren’t usually eager to do a full-court press, let alone fly to Alaska. Trump deserves credit for doing the work, but the fact that he’s campaigning in red states tells you where Republican priorities are. They’re no longer on offense.Chapters00:00:00 - Intro00:02:45 - James Talarico00:13:09 - Kimberly Guilfoyle00:14:24 - Kansas Senate Race00:25:30 - Update00:26:22 - Republican Super PACs00:27:25 - Trump Heads to Alaska00:29:58 - DOGE00:31:02 - Interview with Ryan McBeth This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.politicspoliticspolitics.com/subscribe

We’re less than a month from Election Day, which means this is when polls should begin to move. The money has been spent, the persuasion is out there, and the surrogates have said what they’re going to say. A race sitting at five or six points needs to move toward three or two if it’s going to become competitive. Otherwise, it starts widening to the point where we can call it done.Michigan is essentially tied. Four recent polls have Abdul El-Sayed leading Mike Rogers by one or two points, while a smaller survey put El-Sayed ahead by five. I’m inclined to throw that smaller poll out. El-Sayed also appears to be distancing himself from Hasan Piker after campaigning with him during the primary. If he’s trying to get away from that association now, somebody internally is showing him scary numbers. My verdict: Michigan is tightening — like two hands coming together on a first date.Politics Politics Politics is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.Georgia and North Carolina are going the other way. Jon Ossoff leads by eight to 10 points in three recent Georgia polls. That race is wider than the Grand Canyon and only getting wider. In North Carolina, Roy Cooper leads by five to 12 points, and Michael Whatley has temporarily pulled his television ads. His campaign says it’s merely adjusting whom it targets before making a late push. I say: liar, liar, pants on fire. That race is wider than a waistband on Thanksgiving, with more green-bean casserole still coming.Texas is telling two different stories. Large polls have James Talarico ahead by six, while others show him leading by only one or two. My gut, living here, is that this race isn’t as tight as Beto O’Rourke versus Ted Cruz. Talarico is popular, but he isn’t a cult figure, and winning statewide as a Democrat would be historic. On the other hand, Ken Paxton is a lump of dirty clothes with the charisma of a wooden spoon. So is Texas tightening or widening? I don’t know. It might be staying the same while being pulled equally in opposite directions.Kansas is unquestionably tightening. Recent polls range from Democrat Hamilton leading by three to Republican Roger Marshall leading by one, with another showing a tie. An earlier poll had Marshall ahead by five. If you start at Marshall plus five and end at Hamilton plus three, there’s only one way to describe that: tighter than new underwear. It’s all bunching up in there.The big picture is ugly for Republicans. They’re effectively giving up on Georgia and North Carolina while betting their hopes on Michigan. Candidate quality matters — Ossoff has become a feared candidate, Cooper has won statewide, and Rogers is strong enough that he might lead in a better environment. But the environment isn’t better. Republicans have very few bright spots: races are tightening where they shouldn’t be, and they’re widening in places where Republicans desperately need them to stop stretching.Chapters00:00:00 - Intro00:04:18 - Widening and Tightening00:20:55 - Update/Marco Rubio in Greece00:25:58 - Microsoft H1B00:28:36 - Iran00:32:13 - Interview with Dave Levinthal01:10:52 - Wrap-up This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.politicspoliticspolitics.com/subscribe

This wasn’t supposed to be a good Senate year for Democrats. They’re competing in states Trump won, sometimes by double digits, and Maine looked like their best pickup opportunity. But if you believe the RealClearPolitics averages, we’re going to see a blue Senate. Democrats currently lead by 0.7 points in Iowa and Maine, 1.6 in Minnesota, and 1.8 in Alaska, while Kansas Republican Roger Marshall leads by only one. Recent polling is even worse for Republicans: Marist has Troy Jackson up four in Maine and Josh Turek up eight in Iowa, while a New York Times/Siena poll has Mary Peltola up seven in Alaska and Kansas tied.My hypothesis is that polling is simply getting worse. It’s harder to reach people, fewer people are willing to participate, and the public averages are increasingly flooded with internal polling or something that looks like it. An interest group aligned with a candidate releases a poll, it enters the bloodstream, and it shifts the aggregate. At the same time, reputable pollsters may be overcorrecting based on whom they missed in the previous presidential election.Politics Politics Politics is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.I took five of the most competitive Senate races from 2014, 2018, and 2022 and compared the final RealClearPolitics averages with the actual results. In 2014, the average error across those races was 2.31 points. North Carolina polling had Democrat Kay Hagan ahead of Thom Tillis by 0.7, but Tillis won by roughly 1.5. The biggest miss came in Iowa, where Joni Ernst was expected to win by 2.3 and instead won by six.The misses got worse in 2018, when the average error reached about 4.5 points. Polling had Rick Scott losing in Florida, Martha McSally beating Kyrsten Sinema in Arizona, Claire McCaskill and Josh Hawley essentially tied in Missouri, and a Democrat winning in Indiana. Hawley and the Indiana Republican both won by nearly six points, while Democrat Jacky Rosen won Nevada by five. When those polls missed, they missed horrendously.In 2022, the average error across the five races was 3.92 points. Polling had Pennsylvania essentially tied, with Mehmet Oz slightly ahead, before John Fetterman won by about five. It had Herschel Walker beating Raphael Warnock, who ultimately won the race, and Adam Laxalt leading Catherine Cortez Masto by 3.5 points in Nevada before Cortez Masto won by nearly one. These weren’t all misses in the same partisan direction.The polling right now unquestionably shows a blue wave. To believe otherwise, you have to convince yourself that unreachable rural Republicans will come home even though they don’t want to talk to pollsters. I’m skeptical of rosy Democratic numbers in deep-red states like Iowa and Kansas, but in Ohio, Michigan, and perhaps Pennsylvania, the polls may actually be undercounting Democratic support. A three- or four-point miss is entirely plausible and would change many of these races. The problem for anyone relying on that possibility is that there’s no guarantee which way the miss goes.Chapters00:00:00 - Intro00:02:48 - Polling00:15:11 - Update00:16:00 - Trump Ads00:18:28 - Midterm Spending00:20:31 - Supreme Court Climate Change00:22:57 - Interview with JD Durkin00:57:45 - Wrap-up This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.politicspoliticspolitics.com/subscribe

A Democratic outside group called Defend the Vote has launched a $7 million statewide television campaign attacking Senator John Husted’s ties to data-center developers and making him the face of AI data centers in Ohio. Husted knows he’s vulnerable on this. That’s why he attached his name to the Ratepayer Protection Act, which was designed to prevent regular citizens from paying higher electricity costs because of data centers. The bill passed the House but failed procedurally in the Senate, 57–43, because it needed 60 votes.Most people don’t really know why data centers are supposed to be bad beyond the fact that big tech wants them and nobody knows what that means for their community. There’s plenty of misinformation, but the issue has still become a galvanizing cross-party force. The strongest Democratic argument is to frame data centers as corruption — payback, kickbacks, graft, and politicians acting as supplicants to big tech. Otherwise, it’s mostly a NIMBY concern. But if that concern reaches the exurbs, Democrats will gladly take those votes because they don’t normally get them.Politics Politics Politics is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.Ohio used to be one of the swingiest swing states before moving firmly into the Republican column during the Trump era. Now it’s close again. One poll has Sherrod Brown leading Husted by nearly four points, another has him up eight, another has him up 2.6, and the latest has him ahead by one. The race appears to be narrowing, but this is still a state Trump won comfortably in 2024 and one where nobody spent much time, money, or effort trying to elect Kamala Harris.Democrats may have an even better opportunity in the governor’s race. Amy Acton leads Vivek Ramaswamy by six points in one poll and nine in another, and she’s above 50 percent in both. Another poll has Ramaswamy ahead by one, so this isn’t universal, but we may be seeing the degradation of the Trump coalition — voters who believed in Trump’s brand of populism and now feel disillusioned or betrayed. Acton is also the more charismatic candidate. Ramaswamy is compelling when he’s on the attack, but when he isn’t tearing somebody down, he’s odd. He’s in this position because Trump was popular in Ohio. Now he may have to eat a gigantic sandwich full of excrement.Democrats also appear to be addressing their money problem in the House. Their two main outside groups raised a combined $230 million during the third quarter, the best quarter they’ve ever had, bringing their cycle total to $514 million. House Majority PAC plans to spend more than $291 million on advertising before Election Day. Democrats were hurting, and now they’ll be able to play on the air. The question is where they can still buy space, because many of those slots were reserved months ago.Trump, meanwhile, is using investment announcements and campaign visits to help vulnerable Republicans. He announced a $54 billion Alaska gas project with Senator Dan Sullivan and promoted a proposed $15 billion steel plant in Iowa alongside Ashley Hinson. I don’t think anyone will be able to say Trump was lazy during these midterms. The Republican fear was that he’d sense things were going badly, pull back, stop spending money, and start trashing his own candidates. Instead, he understands this is the last time he’ll be on the ballot, even by proxy, and he’s getting off his ass. Whether it’ll matter is another question.Chapters00:00:00 - Intro00:01:57 - Ohio00:09:06 - Update00:09:40 - Dem Fundraising00:11:35 - Reflecting Pool00:12:46 - Trump’s Midterm Push00:15:50 - Interview with Kirk Bado 00:55:05 - Emails and Wrap-up This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.politicspoliticspolitics.com/subscribe

Right now, the prediction markets have James Talarico at about 60–40, and the polling shows either a tied race or one where he’s slightly ahead of Ken Paxton. But I live in the most liberal enclave of Texas, and this doesn’t feel like Beto mania. You see Talarico signs around Austin, but you don’t see the same cultural energy. Maybe that’s by design. Talarico is trying to appeal more to the middle, and Beto lost in a favorable environment during Trump’s first midterm.The biggest wind at Talarico’s back is the environment. Trump is historically unpopular, gas prices are high, inflation is persistent, and people are paying more to get the same or less. That’s a recipe for killing presidential and party momentum. It would help Republicans if they had a dynamic candidate, but Paxton is a big fat bullfrog who mostly sits on a log and puffs his neck. Mr. Saturday Night he isn’t, and his lack of charisma may be the least of his problems. He’s rife with scandal, including a divorce from his very loyal wife on biblical grounds.Politics Politics Politics is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.My crystallized view is that these are two weak candidates. Talarico is weak because of who he is: a slight guy from the most progressive place in a state that isn’t progressive, with years of statements from the legislature that can and will be used against him. He took progressive positions during a progressive age that are no longer fashionable. That would normally be enough to sink a candidate, but it hasn’t because I think he’s running a good campaign. The upside comparison is Brock Purdy — undersized, underqualified, carrying baggage from his past, but succeeding when he finally gets his shot.Talarico’s campaign still seems unsure how to sell him. One ad puts him in a rocking chair on a front porch somewhere outside Austin, trying to reassure religious voters that he’s just like everyday Texans. But the chair’s back towers over his head, making an already slight candidate look even smaller. Paxton’s campaign, meanwhile, stinks on ice. Until MAGA Inc. and the Senate Leadership Fund arrived, he barely had a pitch. He doesn’t talk to the camera, doesn’t appear in his own ads, and hasn’t offered a basic argument about what he accomplished as attorney general. The outside groups are now doing that work for him.The coalition problem cuts both ways. Talarico needs the Democratic city centers, Black voters around Houston, and Hispanics along the border who moved toward Trump in 2024. But Jasmine Crockett still hasn’t bridged the gap between Talarico and Black voters after losing the primary. She released an endorsement list without his name on it. Paxton needs the suburbs, rural Texas, and as many Trump-voting Hispanics as possible, but John Cornyn seems perfectly happy to watch him crash and burn after losing the Republican primary. Cornyn and Crockett should form the Sore Losers Guild.So, does Talarico have a shot? Yes, but everything has to go right. He got the opponent, environment, and campaigns he wanted, but it’s like needing a coin to land tails 10 times — getting nine doesn’t matter if the last flip is heads. Texas remains highly polarized, voters still dislike the Democratic Party, the Republican advantage may improve if gas prices fall, and Democrats are being badly outspent. I don’t think backing Talarico is ridiculous, but with plus money available on a Republican in Texas, I’d feel like a real horse’s ass on election night if I passed it up.Chapters00:00:00 - Intro00:02:45 - Texas00:23:07 - Update00:24:18 - America.gov00:27:39 - Iran00:32:32 - AI00:34:28 - Interview with Juliegrace Brufke01:15:34 - Wrap-up This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.politicspoliticspolitics.com/subscribe

For my money, the most accurate television depiction of politics isn’t House of Cards — villainous, murky, lethal — or The West Wing — quippy, nerdy, idealistic. It’s Veep: mistake-prone, profane egos slapping lewdly against each other while supplicants protect the fragile facade of elected officials. When a story reinforces that idea, we’ve got to talk about it.Mary Peltola is running as a strong Democratic candidate for Senate in Alaska. She’s well-liked statewide, has cross-party appeal, and doesn’t talk or act like a normal Democrat. The polling bears out the idea that she could win. But a new New York Times story, based on interviews with nine former staffers, says she isn’t the easiest person to work for.Politics Politics Politics is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.Former aides described angry and profane outbursts, slurs, firings, and one incident in which Peltola allegedly shoved a male employee in the chest. Four said they heard her use a homophobic slur, which her campaign denies. Former aides and text messages also show her using “retarded.” In one message about Planned Parenthood, she wrote, “I hope Planned Parenthood knows that if we don’t win, it’s more their loss than ours. F**k those b*****s.” In another, she wrote of a local Planned Parenthood board member, “I hope she dies of a botched abortion.”Staffers said Peltola sometimes jumped up and down, stomped her feet, and swept stacks of papers from her desk in frustration — something two people independently compared to a scene from Veep. They also said she would “nothing” people she believed had wronged her. One text read, “F**k that retard. Honestly, I nothing him.” Her campaign said she regrets using that word but denied that she used the homophobic slur.Nearly every Republican political operative I spoke with had the same reaction: She’s going to win now. Democrats desperately want to sweep this under the rug, while Republicans seem to think she sounds kind of cool and not uptight. Some Democrats have even criticized the staffers, which isn’t something you’ve seen much over the last decade. My assumption is that this is revenge for the campaign shakeup, when Peltola fired staffers after a fight over her signage operation.Some of the allegations also feel padded. Peltola asked aides to feed her family’s chameleon, Meatball, live crickets and eventually brought Meatball into the office to make that easier. I’d be shocked if members of Congress with dogs or cats had never relied on aides to feed them. Politics is a stressful business filled with ambitious members, colorful characters, and offices that are easier or harder to work in. Does any of this mean Peltola is a good person or a good boss? That’s up to you. All I’ll say is this: I’ve heard worse.Chapters00:00:00 - Intro00:03:12 - Mary Peltola (uncensored segment)00:20:13 - Kevin Ryan on Culture01:01:17 - Update01:01:35 - WH Press Pool01:02:49 - War Powers01:05:27 - US-China Trade Truce01:08:01 - Kevin Ryan on Culture, con’t01:55:44 - Wrap-up This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.politicspoliticspolitics.com/subscribe