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World War III is canceled — at least for now. That’s where we are after one of the most dramatic weeks I can remember. The United States bombed Iran’s nuclear facilities. Israel followed up with its own strikes. Iran responded with missile attacks on CENTCOM in Qatar. And somehow, through all that, we’ve landed at a ceasefire. It felt like this was going to spiral — like this was going to be Qasem Soleimani times ten. Instead, it fizzled. Iran’s missile strikes were calibrated, coordinated with the Qataris, coordinated even with us. They hit the sand, not American soldiers. It was more about sending a message back home than actually escalating the conflict.And that’s the strange brilliance of it all. Trump took the boldest action — destroying Iran’s nuclear program — and managed to walk away looking like the peacemaker. The people who warned that this would unleash chaos — Tucker Carlson predicting tens of thousands of dead Americans, Steve Bannon talking about gas at $30 a gallon — they look like they overshot. Gas prices are lower. No Americans killed. And Trump’s using this moment to reframe himself. He’s not just the guy who kept his promise to stop Iran’s nukes. He’s the guy who did it without dragging America into another endless war. That’s going to matter politically. It gives him an argument the MAGA base and the suburbs can both live with.Politics Politics Politics is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.Israel’s role here is important too. Make no mistake — this was their mission. They wanted Iran’s nuclear capacity gone. Trump signed off on a limited U.S. role, but Rising Lion was an Israeli operation at its core. Their goal was never just to set the program back a few years. It was to shake the regime. You can see it in the name — Rising Lion, the symbol of Iran before the Islamic Revolution. They’re trying to turn the clock back. And they knew this was their window. Iran’s economy is fragile, its proxies are weakened, and Trump was willing to greenlight the hits. The question now is whether this creates the cracks in the regime they’ve been waiting for — or just rallies Iranians around the flag.The domestic political fallout has been fascinating. Never Trump Republicans who’ve trashed Trump for years — Bolton, Christie, Kinzinger, even Jeb Bush — lined up to praise him. And that’s made MAGA a little uneasy. They didn’t sign up for regime change wars. They signed up for America First. And now they’re watching Trump get applause from the same people who cheered on Iraq. Meanwhile, Democrats are trying to resurrect the war powers debate, framing this as executive overreach. It’s the rare moment where anti-war Republicans and Democrats are kind of saying the same thing. But for now, Trump’s riding high. He promised strength without entanglement — and for the moment, he’s delivered.The NYC Mayoral Primary: Cuomo Stumbles, Mamdani SurgesOver in New York City, the Democratic mayoral primary has become the most interesting race in the country. Andrew Cuomo should have been cruising. He had the name recognition, the machine, the donor network. But his campaign has been a disaster. He looks old, angry, and out of step. His message is all negative — all about why Mamdani is dangerous, not why Cuomo is right for the job. And the voters can feel that. It’s a re-run of 2021 for Cuomo: defensive, brittle, uninspired. Meanwhile, Mamdani is doing what progressives often struggle to do. He’s selling a vision. He’s making people feel like the future could actually look different.Mamdani’s campaign has been relentless. He turned a 14-mile walk from the bottom to the top of Manhattan into a social media juggernaut. TikToks. Instagram reels. Everywhere you look, there’s Mamdani, talking to voters, talking about his ideas, looking like he actually wants the job. His policy platform is ambitious — some would say reckless — rent freezes, city-owned grocery stores, free public transit. But it’s positive. He’s offering something, not just fighting against something. That matters, especially in a city where voters are tired of politics as usual.The ranked choice system adds another layer of drama. Mamdani doesn’t have to win outright on the first round. He just has to stay close enough that the second- and third-choice votes break his way. And given how much Cuomo is disliked even by his own side, that’s very possible. The big donors are starting to notice. If Mamdani wins the primary, they’ll flood Eric Adams with money for the general. They’ll do it out of fear — fear that a Mamdani mayoralty would upend the city’s power structures in ways they can’t predict or control. And they’re probably right.But even if Mamdani falls short, this race is a marker for where the Democratic Party is going. The fact that he got this far, this fast, tells you something about the appetite for progressive politics in urban America. Cuomo thought he could coast on his name and his record. Instead, he’s found himself outworked, outmessaged, and outmaneuvered. And the rest of the party is watching. Because if Mamdani can do this in New York, somebody else can do it somewhere else. The future is up for grabs.Chapters00:00:00 - Intro00:01:39 - Iran-Israel Ceasefire00:17:53 - NYC Mayoral Primary00:28:00 - Update00:29:04 - Tariff Inflation00:31:18 - Big Beautiful Bill Voting00:34:48 - Trade Deals00:38:02 - Interview with Sam Feist01:11:11 - Wrap-up This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.politicspoliticspolitics.com/subscribe

The big headline, of course, this week is Iran. The White House says Iran has everything it needs to build a nuclear weapon. That’s where we are. Trump has about two weeks to decide whether to launch an attack. The reporting right now focuses on what kind of strike it would take to actually stop the program — could our bunker busters get the job done, or are those centrifuges buried so deep we’d need to soften the ground with conventional bombs first? There’s even been talk — not a plan, just a technical example — of how only a tactical nuke could fully destroy Fordo. That’s not where we’re at, but it tells you how seriously the Pentagon is gaming this out.And honestly, I don’t see a deal coming. Iran’s regime can’t afford it. Giving up the nuke means giving up the one thing that lets them project power, and domestically, it would be political suicide. You don’t stay in charge in Tehran by backing down on Israel and nukes — not unless you’re planning an escape to Moscow and retirement in a palace somewhere. That’s not happening. My bet: Fordo gets hit. And when it does, the question is what follows.The Elon-MAGA Rift DeepensMeanwhile, Elon Musk continues his very public, very messy split with Trump World. After his earlier apology tour seemed to smooth things over, Musk reignited tensions by calling Trump advisor Sergio Gore a “snake.” This all goes back to their feud over NASA leadership and White House staffing — and it’s clear Musk isn’t letting it go. Vice President JD Vance jumped in to defend Gore, and the White House insists Gore is fully cleared and doing his job. The result? Elon drifts further from the MAGA core. He wanted to be at the table, but he keeps setting fire to the chairs.And look, this is classic Elon. He’s always clashed with people he once partnered with — OpenAI, Trump, now Gore. He moves fast, burns bridges, and expects to build new ones just as quickly. But politics isn’t tech. There’s only so many seats at the table, and right now, he’s playing himself out of them.ICE Raids, Reversals, and the Trump Balancing ActImmigration remains the other pressure point. Trump’s team initially paused ICE raids targeting agriculture and hospitality — a move that shocked his hardline base. But now they’re back on, with priority given to workers with criminal records. Tom Homan, Trump’s border czar, is clear: enforcement continues, but it’s targeted. The message to farmers? There are legal ways to hire, and if Congress won’t fix the system, they’ll enforce the laws that exist.It’s classic Trump tension: the balance between policy purity and practical impact. He built his coalition on immigration hard lines and anti-interventionism. That’s what set him apart. Now, those promises are being tested — at home and abroad. And we’re about to see how far he’s willing to push before the cracks show.Chapters00:00:00 - Intro00:01:51 - Iran00:05:29 - Solving Immigration with Andrew Heaton00:26:54 - Update00:27:27 - Elon00:31:07 - ICE Raids00:33:43 - Solving Immigration with Andrew Heaton, con’t01:00:42 - Wrap-up This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.politicspoliticspolitics.com/subscribe

This is one of those moments where it feels like something fundamental is shifting. The MAGA coalition — that mix of influencers, voters, and operators who’ve been the core of Trump’s political power — looks like it’s fracturing. I’m not saying it’s done, I’m not saying the whole thing comes crashing down, but I’ve never seen this kind of strain. Not since Trump came down the golden escalator in 2015. And it all comes down to two issues: immigration and foreign intervention. The two things that defined Trump as a candidate. The two things that made him stand out in a crowded Republican field. The two things that made him president — twice.Immigration and the First CrackWe’ve talked for years about how immigration shaped MAGA. It took what had been a fringe issue and turned it into the centerpiece of Republican politics. Build the wall. Deport the illegals. It was simple, powerful, and resonated in ways that shocked the establishment. Trump was the first in a generation of Republicans to put his full weight behind it, and he changed the party forever. That’s why what happened last week matters so much. Trump told his government not to conduct ICE raids at hotels, farms, and meatpacking plants. That’s not a small adjustment — that’s a major walk-back from the hardline stance that’s been central to MAGA identity. And it didn’t take long for the backlash to hit. MAGA influencers — the same folks who gave Elon the cold shoulder when he crossed Trump — came out swinging. This time, they were swinging at Trump.Trump reversed himself pretty quickly. But the damage was done. That moment — that decision to pause the raids — showed a crack in the coalition. It revealed a gap between what the base expects and what Trump is willing to deliver when faced with real-world pressures. He doesn’t want grocery prices to spike. He doesn’t want vacationers complaining about hotels. And so he blinked. That’s what happened. And even though he tried to patch it up, the fact that it happened at all is what matters.Iran, Fordo, and the Intervention DilemmaThen there’s foreign policy — the other pillar of Trump’s MAGA appeal. Trump ran against the Iraq war. He ran against regime change. He ran against endless wars. And for four years, he mostly delivered. No new boots on the ground. When he struck, it was fast and targeted — think Soleimani, not Baghdad. But now, here we are, staring down the barrel of something that looks a lot like Iraq all over again. The question on the table: does America bomb Fordo, Iran’s underground enrichment facility, for Israel? And if we do, what comes next?Trump believes Iran can’t be allowed to have nuclear weapons. Tulsi Gabbard, his own director of national intelligence, says Iran isn’t close. That’s daylight between the president and his intel team. And MAGA sees it. They see the build-up. They see the echoes of Iraq. And they’re scared. Scared that Trump is about to cross the one line they thought he never would. Scared that this isn’t just about Fordo — that this is the start of something bigger. Something with boots on the ground. Something that breaks the promise of America First.MAGA’s Nightmare ScenarioIf you asked MAGA voters their nightmare scenario, this would be it. Regime change in the Middle East. A war that drags on. A betrayal of the core principles that brought them to Trump in the first place. The immigration reversal shook them. The Iran situation is terrifying them. And if Trump does decide to hit Fordo, that might be enough to fracture the coalition for good — at least for some.Trump’s legacy on foreign policy could go one of two ways. If Fordo is hit and that’s the end of it, maybe he walks away stronger, having prevented Iran from going nuclear without a long war. But if this spirals — if we get drawn into regime change, nation-building, boots on the ground — it could end his presidency before the next election even starts. MAGA was built on promises. And right now, those promises are under stress like never before.Chapters00:00:00 - Intro00:01:40 - The End of MAGA?00:23:15 - Update00:24:40 - Minnesota Dem Assassination Arrest00:33:11 - SALT00:37:27 - Israel-Iran00:43:44 - The Px3 Focus Group (with Matt Donnelly and Paul Mattingly of Ice Cream Social)01:30:44 - Wrap-up This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.politicspoliticspolitics.com/subscribe

A weekend so profound in it’s news that I am going to push this beyond the paywall. Let’s start abroad… Israel-Iran Conflict Erupts with Fatal StrikesThe military confrontation between Israel and Iran intensified over the weekend, pushing the region toward a broader conflict. After Israel initiated Operation Rising Lion, Iranian ballistic missiles and drones pierced Israeli defenses, leading to 13 fatalities and hundreds of injuries. Iran, in turn, reported nearly 400 deaths, many of them civilians, following retaliatory strikes on its infrastructure and military assets.Israeli airstrikes included the bombing of energy depots in Tehran and targeted assaults on military aircraft. The Israeli government, under Prime Minister Netanyahu, emphasized that the current response was merely the beginning of a broader campaign intended to dismantle Iran's nuclear ambitions and proxy forces.Meanwhile, President Donald Trump denied American involvement but warned of U.S. retaliation should Iran target American interests. A backchannel veto of a potential Israeli strike on Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei suggests complex coordination between the U.S. and Israel.Iran’s capacity to fund regional proxies like Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Houthis has drastically diminished. This could signal a potential collapse of its foreign influence model. Mossad operations inside Iran, along with America’s preemptive repositioning of military personnel, hinted at foreknowledge of the Israeli offensive. As the G7 summit approaches, international leaders are poised to make de-escalation a top priority.Political Assassination Rocks MinnesotaA horrifying attack in Minnesota has left two dead and two more wounded in what authorities are calling a politically motivated assassination. State Representative Melissa Hortman and her husband were killed, while State Senator John Hoffman and his wife were critically injured. The suspect, Vance Luther Boelter, remains at large.Boelter, 57, reportedly used a fake police vehicle and latex disguise to enter the homes of his victims. A manifesto and target list naming politicians and abortion providers were discovered, suggesting a premeditated campaign of terror. Boelter, with a background in security and missionary work, sent a farewell text to his roommate before the attacks and has since vanished.Authorities continue to investigate the full extent of Boelter’s motivations, but his prior service on a Minnesota government workforce board and links to evangelical missions underscore the unpredictable nature of ideological radicalization. Political leaders have called for unity and condemned the violence as a tragic escalation of political extremism.No Kings Day Protests and D.C. Parade Are Mercifully DocilePresident Trump's 79th birthday coincided with massive "No Kings Day" protests, as hundreds of thousands across more than 2,000 cities demonstrated against what organizers describe as authoritarian governance. Backed by groups such as the ACLU and teachers unions, the protests, both domestic and international, were largely peaceful, although one protester in Salt Lake City was injured by a firearm discharged from within the crowd.In Washington, D.C., the U.S. Army’s 250th anniversary parade presented a striking contrast. With more than 6,000 troops, historical reenactors, and military hardware on display, the event drew cheers and selfies rather than vitriol. Even MSNBC coverage noted the upbeat atmosphere, starkly different from the usual tension of Trump rallies.Despite criticism of the $45 million price tag and corporate sponsorships by firms like Northrop Grumman and Coinbase, the event appeared largely apolitical. Trump delivered a brief, focused speech and administered the enlistment oath to 250 new Army recruits, marking the occasion as a rare moment of bipartisan recognition for military service.Episode Chapters and Time Codes* Intro and Father's Day Reflections (00:00:00)* Israel-Iran Conflict Analysis (00:02:18)* Michael Leiter Interview on Israeli Defense (00:04:08)* Strategic Implications and U.S. Positioning (00:08:12)* Domestic Fallout and Trump’s Dilemma (00:13:54)* Netanyahu’s Political Calculations (00:18:02)* Minnesota Assassinations and National Impact (00:20:06)* Senator Klobuchar’s Tribute (00:20:06)* Suspect Background and Manhunt Details (00:22:36)* Reflections on Political Violence (00:26:32)* No Kings Day Protests Recap (00:33:49)* Army Parade Overview and Public Response (00:35:28)* Final Thoughts on American Expression (00:44:01) This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.politicspoliticspolitics.com/subscribe

Capitol Hill was a chaotic mess on Thursday, and Senator Padilla made sure all eyes were on him. He walked into a press conference, got into a scuffle, and wound up in handcuffs — all of it caught on tape. The footage, conveniently shot by Padilla’s own team, spread fast. If it was a stunt, it worked. Within hours, major Democratic voices like Pete Buttigieg were condemning the incident, claiming even Trump wouldn’t cross that line. The Congressional Hispanic Caucus rallied, heckled Speaker Mike Johnson, and declared Padilla a thug or a hero, depending on which side you were on.Let’s be real: Padilla knew exactly what he was doing. He showed up to that press event looking to make a scene — and he made one. Whether or not he wore his Senate pin is beside the point. He wanted the arrest. He wanted the handcuffs. He wanted to be the visual representation of resistance to what California Democrats are branding a fascist crackdown. Gavin Newsom practically begged Trump to arrest him — Padilla followed through.The reactions say it all. I’ve heard from Republicans on the Hill who weren’t thrilled with how it went down, and that tells you who won the optics game. If the video wasn’t a strategic release — if this wasn’t planned — it sure fooled me. Democrats instantly seized on it. Social media lit up. The message was clear: California’s not backing down. Padilla’s not backing down. And if you try to box us out of this debate, we’ll crash the press conference — literally.Padilla and Governor Kristi Noem apparently had a sit-down afterward. They exchanged numbers, maybe patched it up, maybe not. But the story had already moved. The narrative was set. This wasn’t about reconciliation — it was about the clip. A sitting senator in handcuffs doesn’t just turn heads. It dominates the news cycle. And for a party looking to show spine in the face of rising federal enforcement in California, Padilla delivered. He walked in knowing exactly how it would play — and for better or worse, he played it perfectly.Chapters00:00:00 - Intro00:02:04 - Thoughts on Sen. Padilla00:09:38 - Interview with Evan Scrimshaw00:38:53 - Update00:39:25 - Dem Govs Defend State Immigration00:42:02 - House Recissions Package Passes00:44:55 - Air India Plane Crash00:46:54 - Interview with Evan Scrimshaw, con’t.01:25:32 - Wrap-up This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.politicspoliticspolitics.com/subscribe

The ongoing Los Angeles protests started with ICE raids. Not a new thing in concept, but a new thing in tone and target. We’re talking work sites, immigration courts, restaurants — not jails or prisons, not the places where even the most progressive voices might begrudgingly agree law enforcement has some claim. But California law has essentially blocked ICE from accessing inmates for deportation. So instead of going after the people most would agree should be first in line, they’re now going after people in public-facing jobs and community spaces. It's one thing to talk about enforcement — it’s another when that enforcement happens where families eat or work.And that’s the flashpoint. Trump said he’d deliver the biggest deportation effort in U.S. history. That promise means numbers, and numbers mean sympathy eventually bleeds in. I assumed it would come when a grandma running a family bakery got dragged out on camera. Instead, we’re here — people in court, people in the kitchen, being targeted. This was always going to happen. When you aim big, you eventually hit someone the public doesn't want you to hit. And in a city like L.A., that means people are going to show up in the streets.Violence, Protest, and the California ReflexProtesting in California isn’t unusual. It’s part of the culture. Go look at Instagram stories from anyone in L.A. or the Bay Area — if something controversial is happening, people are in the streets. It’s not performative in a bad way; it’s performative in the literal sense. It’s how people express politics. But with that comes another layer. The violence.There’s a slice of every major California protest that’s just there for the bricks, the Molotovs, the chaos. Whether they’re accelerationists or just anarchists, they’re consistent. And that’s the problem. The damage they do isn’t proportional — it’s cinematic. It’s what ends up on cable news and social media. And if the goal is to change hearts and minds about immigration policy, burning cop cars and smashing windows makes that harder, not easier.Where Are the Adults?This is where leadership matters. Donald Trump’s giving about 20% of his attention to this. Maybe less. He’s more engaged with Iran and China. The ICE moves feel reflexive, not strategic. They hit resistance, they escalate. Federalizing the National Guard, deploying Marines — it’s blunt-force governance. It’s power without precision. What you really need is coordination with the local officials. Instead, we’ve got a shouting match.Gavin Newsom says “arrest me.” Karen Bass echoes that. But neither is engaging with the reality on the ground. They’re acting like Trump is literally smashing windows. And maybe that’s useful for the national narrative, but it’s not leadership. The onus is on them — Newsom, Bass, the people closest to the problem — to take the lead in condemning the violence. But they won’t even acknowledge it. And so we spiral.The truth is, most of these protests are peaceful. But the few that aren’t are the ones that define the story. That was the lesson of 2020. And yet here we are again, learning it all over. It’s a noble cause, absolutely. But when you ignore the violence — when you pretend it doesn’t matter — you lose the moral high ground. And right now, nobody’s looking particularly adult in the room.Chapters00:00:00 - Intro00:01:33 - LA Protests00:18:45 - Interview with Rep. Greg Steube00:38:58 - Update00:39:26 - BBB Provisions00:42:25 - Recission Package00:48:28 - LA Protest Polling00:50:19 - Interview with Tom Merritt01:28:53 - Wrap-up This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.politicspoliticspolitics.com/subscribe

The Big Beautiful Bill looked like it was gliding along. Sure, there were hiccups — Rand Paul grumbled about the debt ceiling, some MAGA accounts didn’t fully endorse it — but even then, it felt like controlled turbulence. Paul was performing his role as the token dissenter, the libertarian who always squawks about spending but eventually votes yes with a few tweaks. And he was already telegraphing his price: drop the debt ceiling hike and he’s in. Meanwhile, the House side wasn’t exactly throwing punches. Everyone was eyeing the Senate. If anything, it seemed like things were lining up for a classic late-June deal — messy but inevitable.Punchbowl’s Jake Sherman, who’s as wired in as it gets, detailed the emerging gap between the House and Senate versions of the bill. The Senate Finance Committee wants permanent tax breaks that sunset in the House version. They’re also pushing to modify or eliminate key Trump-era items — like the no-tax-on-overtime policy and new savings accounts for kids. There’s still no consensus on SALT either. Senate Republicans want to water down the $40,000 deduction cap that Trump himself agreed to. That would make some moderate House Republicans happy, but it could risk blowing up the agreement altogether. This is the stuff that actually matters — the policy guts that will be run past the parliamentarian and hashed out in closed-door meetings. But then, out of nowhere… Elon.Politics Politics Politics is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.MAGA Has a Specific TypeTwo days ago, Elon Musk posted that the big beautiful bill was a “disgusting abomination.” Then he followed it up by retweeting Rand Paul with the words “KILL the BILLL.” That’s not a passing criticism. That’s scorched-earth stuff. And when it comes from a guy like Elon — who has positioned himself as a billionaire warrior for the MAGA cause — it’s a challenge. So I did what I always do. I doomscrolled. Not for fun, but for you. To see who flinches. And here’s what I found: almost nobody followed his lead.Charlie Kirk, who had been fairly quiet on the bill, suddenly dropped a thread outlining “50 wins” from it — MAGA-branded talking points that sounded like they came from Speaker Johnson’s office. He didn’t mention Elon. He didn’t need to. The timing was the tell. He was staking a claim: this bill is ours. It’s Trump’s. And we’re backing it. Then came Catturd. If you don’t know about @Catturd2, well, that’s why you listen to this show. The dude’s a Twitter account run by a Florida musician, but in the MAGA ecosystem, his voice carries weight. When he turns, people follow. And he wasn’t with Elon either.Mike Cernovich — someone who’s ridden hard for Elon, slammed his enemies, carried water for his beefs — also pivoted. He made it clear that Trump’s agenda is what gets MAGA fired up, not fiscal purity. His message was simple: you might like Elon, but Trump’s the main character here. And look, none of these guys are policy wonks. But they are barometers. They’re not jumping to Elon’s defense. They’re lining up behind the machine.Last One In, First One OutElon is learning in real time what it means to be new money in a political world that runs on tenure and loyalty. MAGA isn’t a traditional political coalition. It’s more like a federation of tribes — influencers, donors, operators — loosely tied together by a shared orbit around Trump. And in that world, being flashy doesn’t count for much if you weren’t in the trenches in 2016 or 2020. Elon came on board when it was already a moving train. Buying Twitter, firing woke staff, bringing Trump back to the platform — all of that scored him points. But that’s not the same as being family.That’s why I keep coming back to the same thought: last one in, first one out. Musk might be the richest guy in the world. He might own the place where MAGA influencers gather. But the moment he stepped out of line, they let him drift. Not a coordinated takedown. Just silence. And silence is brutal. He’s not getting clowned like Bannon did when he got iced out. He’s just floating — a slow, silent uncoupling from the people who used to cheer his every post.Now, Mike Johnson is supposed to speak to Elon about the bill today. Maybe that call smooths things over. Maybe Russ Vought or Stephen Miller reels him back in. Maybe he gets a seat at the table, tweaks the AI language, and declares victory. But right now, he’s yelling about the CBO’s deficit projections and getting politely ignored. And the MAGA coalition — the one he thought he’d conquered — is moving on without him.Chapters(Minor mic issues during the first 3 minutes of our interview with Kevin, stick with it.)00:00:00 - Intro00:02:57 - Elon vs. the Big Beautiful Bill00:16:36 - Interview with Kevin Ryan00:41:38 - Update00:41:56 - Trump's Travel Ban00:46:09 - Karine Jean-Pierre's Book00:51:46 - AOC Endorses Zohran Mamdani00:56:36 - Interview with Kevin Ryan, con't01:35:46 - Wrap-up This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.politicspoliticspolitics.com/subscribe

Elon Musk set off a grenade in conservative circles this week, trashing the one big, beautiful bill Trump has staked so much on. He didn’t just throw shade — he called it a “disgusting abomination,” backed Rand Paul’s $5 trillion deficit claim, and waved the American flag emoji as punctuation. This wasn’t a random tweet. This was Musk choosing to detonate right as Speaker Mike Johnson is working the Senate hard to shepherd this bill into law. Johnson, for his part, did respond, claiming he had a 20-minute phone call with Musk where the topic never came up. But c’mon — that silence says a lot. Either Johnson’s not telling the whole story, or Musk baited him. Neither looks great.The timing is brutal. Musk has been a reliable MAGA ally — hosting DeSantis’s launch, reshaping Twitter into a free speech battleground, becoming a key donor and message amplifier. When he turns on your signature policy, it signals open season. And it’s not just personal. Elon hates the EV credit phase-outs in the bill. He’s furious about the AI regulatory overrides that strip individual from states like California. And his businesses, from SpaceX to Starlink, all have reasons to be wary of the bill’s broader tech oversight. So what looked like a united conservative front just fractured — and it fractured loudly. This is the part of the process where fights get public. And loud. And weird.Politics Politics Politics is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.Iowa and the 2024 RemapIt’s moments like this that make me appreciate the Iowa caucus even more. Say what you will about the process — yes, it’s clunky, yes, it can be exclusionary — but nobody works harder at retail politics than Iowans. I’ve been in diners, VFW halls, and school gyms across that state. These are folks who grill candidates, push policy details, and actually pay attention. Compare that to South Carolina, which Biden bumped to the front of the line for the Democratic primary. That move was clearly strategic — to avoid an early embarrassment — but it came at a cost. The engagement just isn’t the same. You can walk into a bar in Manchester and get into a policy debate with a random guy sipping Busch Light. That’s not happening in Columbia.Now, there’s a window to fix it. With 2024 settled, both parties could realign the primary calendar — and they should. Let Iowa go first. Let New Hampshire follow. Put South Carolina third, Nevada fourth. Let people earn it. The current process is dominated by consultants who don’t want surprises. But surprises are good. They shake things up. They reveal flaws. They test candidates in real-time, not just in sanitized TV town halls. If you want to know who can campaign in a blizzard, let 'em face a real one. Bring back the vetting. Bring back the grit.Deal Deadlines and Tiers of ImportanceThen there’s the global chessboard. June marks the end of the 90-day tariff pause Trump announced on Liberation Day — his dramatic trade reset. That pause gave negotiators time to cut new deals, to defuse tensions. But with just weeks left, where are the deals? Trump hasn’t sealed anything. Not with China. Not with India. Not with Vietnam, or Mexico, or even Taiwan. Instead, he’s hosting white paper summits and showing off 2017 flashbacks. The branding is tight, but the substance is lagging.Look at the scoreboard. Ukraine was inching toward peace talks — then dropped a drone strike that disabled a third of Russia’s bomber fleet. That doesn’t scream “diplomatic breakthrough.” Gaza? The American-backed aid initiative is collapsing under mutual mistrust and unconfirmed shootings. We’re left trying to guess which footage is real and which claims are propaganda. And while all this plays out, the trade environment remains stuck. Japan, South Korea, Australia — they’re locked into frameworks that don’t need rewriting. The real action would be a comprehensive tariff reset with Mexico or Vietnam, or a groundbreaking semiconductor pact with Taiwan. But so far, we’re getting press releases, not treaties.So here’s how I see it. You’ve got three tiers of trade potential. Tier 1: countries that matter symbolically — Canada, UK, the Netherlands. Deals here look good but don’t move markets. Tier 2: mid-size powerhouses like South Korea, Japan, and Germany. All three matter for automotives, while South Korea and Japan both matter for their tech sectors. Finally, Tier 3 is where it counts: China, Mexico, Vietnam, Taiwan, India. If Trump can close one deal there, he regains the upper hand. If he can’t, he enters the summer with big talk and no wins — just in time for Senate Democrats to go on offense. Time is ticking.Chapters00:00:00 - Intro00:03:10 - Elon Trashes the BBB00:08:09 - Iowa Caucus 00:11:24 - Trump Trade Tiers00:22:14 - Interview with Michael Cohen00:49:52 - Update00:50:33 - Big Beautiful Bill Senate Discussions00:53:05 - Jaime Harrison Comments00:55:08 - Trump China Trade Talks00:57:23 - Interview with Michael Cohen, con’t.01:35:36 - Wrap-up This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.politicspoliticspolitics.com/subscribe

When it comes to tariffs, we’ve done the hokey pokey and turned ourselves around — and yes, that is what it’s all about. Trump’s Liberation Day tariffs are back on the table, and it’s been a wild 24 hours.Right after I wrapped our paid bonus episode, a three-judge panel ruled that Donald Trump doesn’t have the authority under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act — the IEPA — to unilaterally place tariffs on foreign nations. That law, which dates back to the 1970s, gives the president emergency powers to impose economic sanctions or tariffs if there’s a national emergency. Trump had been using it as the backbone for his tariff strategy, claiming national emergency status and going after trading partners.The ruling, at least temporarily, blew that up. If Trump doesn’t have that authority, he loses a huge leverage point in trade negotiations. All of a sudden, the calls from the EU, from Japan, from India — which I’ve heard is close — they get a lot slower. The power dynamic shifts. Trump becomes just another guy asking for a deal, not the guy with a threat to back it up. And to be clear, he wasn’t actively raising tariffs — he’d actually pulled many of them back or paused them — but that’s part of the strategy. The threat of a tariff can be just as powerful as the tariff itself.The markets liked the news. Stocks surged. And Trump was caught in a classic rock-and-a-hard-place moment. But then, just as I was landing and debating whether to even record, the appellate court reverses the first ruling. Suddenly, Trump’s back in the game. His authority over the IEPA is restored… for now.Does this matter for what’s happening in the Senate right now? Probably not directly. But for trade negotiations? Absolutely. I think deals are going to move fast. If you’re a trading partner and you think there’s a window before this hits the Supreme Court — and it might — you move. You get your best deal now. You say, “Here’s the offer, take it or leave it,” and Trump might be more inclined to take it than he was before.I’m not a trade expert. I’m just calling it like I see it. But from the seat of my pants, this looks like a flashpoint. The kind of legal back-and-forth that opens the door to some quicker deals than we otherwise might’ve seen.Chapters00:00:00 - Intro00:00:55 - Interview with Kirk Bado00:47:30 - Update and Tariff Madness00:52:13 - Interview with Katherine Dee01:25:25 - Wrap-up This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.politicspoliticspolitics.com/subscribe

This weekend, the New York Times ran a piece titled Six Months Later, Democrats Are Still Searching for the Path Forward, and it was bleak. The lead quote came from Anat Shenker-Osorio, a favorite of this show, describing Democrats as sloths, snails, and most devastatingly, a deer in headlights. That last one feels accurate, especially when you look at the post-election breakdown from Catalist, a Democratic-aligned polling firm. We’ll dive deeper into that next week with Michael Cohen, but the short version? The coalition looks grim.Democrats are losing ground, and it’s not just because of Joe Biden or Kamala Harris. It’s not just about the top of the ticket. It’s structural. They don’t have a message that resonates, and they don’t have a coalition that can win. When you look at how the electorate has shifted since 2012 — through 2016, 2020, and now 2024 — the trend is clear. Wide swaths of the country keep moving right. This is not just a Trump story. This is a cultural shift.Politics Politics Politics is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.There are a few bright spots — like John Ossoff. The Atlanta suburbs are still trending blue, which gives him a strong base going into his re-election. But one candidate’s survival isn’t a strategy. The bigger problem is Democrats losing voters they used to count on, and then reacting like anthropologists studying a foreign culture. Take the new $20 million project codenamed SAM — “Speaking with American Men.” The plan is to understand what language appeals to young men online and then buy ad space in video games. I’m not kidding.I’ll save you the $20 million. Want to understand American men? Go to a sports bar at lunch. Talk to the bartender. Watch what’s on TV. It’s going to be Capitals games, Commanders games, maybe Nationals if they’re hot. Ask what name the bartender uses — Commanders or Redskins — and pay attention. That’s a signal. Look around. You’ll see a guy without sleeves. His name is Pat McAfee. He parlayed a Barstool podcast into a national show that’s shaping how a huge swath of American men consume sports and culture.McAfee is the demographic. Not the man, but the space he occupies. You don’t need to book him — in fact, don’t. But understand what kind of guests are on his show. What they talk about. What they joke about. The cultural signals they send. Most aren’t overtly political, but they skew conservative. They care about sports, performance, and authenticity. They aren’t trying to be progressive heroes. They’re just being themselves — and Democrats don’t know how to speak to that.The real issue is that Democrats think everything is messaging. They believe their phrasing is so perfect, so tested, that if people just heard it the right way, it would work. But voters aren’t lab rats. They’re not waiting for the next DNC ad drop to form their opinions. They’re watching comedians joke about trans athletes. They’re laughing at jokes about liberal overreach. They’re reacting to a world where Democrats are often cast as anti-fun and anti-speech. And white men — yes, still the overwhelming majority of this country — don’t respond well to being told they’re the problem from the start.So how do you reach them? Start by understanding who’s already reaching them. Then think about what message would land quietly on a show like Pat McAfee’s. Not what would stand out. What would blend in. That’s the Rosetta Stone. Speak in a way that doesn’t sound like a speech. Get out of your own head. Stop trying to convert — start trying to connect.And meanwhile, while Democrats strategize over lunch buffets at luxury hotels, Trump is climbing in the polls. The idea that he’s getting “less popular” is just wrong. His lowest point was late April. Since then, his numbers have rebounded. His approval is hovering around 47 percent. That’s good — especially for someone who normally lives in the 30s. Right now, more Americans think the country is on the right track under Trump than they ever did under Biden. The direction-of-the-country numbers are strong. For Trump. That’s insane. And Democrats ignore it at their peril.They keep underestimating him. They keep assuming the messaging is enough. But Trump is talking about tax cuts for tips and overtime. Democrats are voting for them too — the Senate just passed a version 100 to 0. They know it polls well. They just don’t want to say it out loud unless it’s their version.Politics is about trust. And the Biden White House broke it. When it’s he said, she said, voters side with the one who hasn’t lied to them. That’s Trump right now. And if Democrats want to change that, they’ve got to start being honest — not just with the public, but with themselves.Chapters00:00:00 - Intro00:01:44 - Democrat Rebranding Struggles00:26:16 - Update00:27:34 - US-EU Trade Talks and Consumer Confidence00:31:32 - Senate Republican Fiscal Concerns00:34:34 - Covid Vaccine Recommendations Pulled00:37:52 - Interview with Juliegrace Brufke01:04:15 - Wrap-up This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.politicspoliticspolitics.com/subscribe