The Missing Middle with Mike Moffatt and Sabrina Maddeaux

David Coletto: The Precarity Mindset and the 2025 Election

Mar 19, 2025

In a dynamic discussion, the evolving Canadian political polling landscape takes center stage, influenced by pivotal events like Trudeau's exit and Trump's legacy. Demographic shifts reveal a surprising rise in support for the Liberal Party among older voters, while the NDP faces significant challenges. The concept of a precarity mindset emerges as a key theme, reflecting voters' desires for stability. Lastly, the complexities of regional politics in Quebec and predictions for voter turnout set the backdrop for the upcoming federal election.

31:44

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Quick takeaways

The rise of a precarity mindset among Canadian voters highlights their shifting focus towards security and stability rather than just material needs.

The evolving political dynamics suggest that the Liberal Party may benefit from key leadership changes and a surge in voter support amidst uncertainty.

Deep dives

Shifting Electoral Dynamics in Canada

Recent polling indicates a significant shift in the Canadian political landscape, with the Liberals gaining traction unexpectedly. Factors contributing to this change include the resignation of Justin Trudeau, the emergence of Mark Carney as a potential leader, and disruptions caused by Donald Trump's policies and public actions. These developments have shifted public perceptions, enabling many voters to reconsider their stance toward the Liberal Party. The Liberals' polling surged from 20% at the end of December to 34%, signaling both a moment of opportunity and uncertainty for the party moving forward.

Intro

5min

Shifting Mindsets in Canadian Politics

7min

NDP Under Pressure: Navigating Political Challenges

8min

Navigating Regional Politics and Voter Dynamics in Quebec

4min

Navigating Election Timing

7min

In this conversation, conservative pundit Sabrina Maddeaux and economist Mike Moffatt discuss the evolving landscape of political polling with David Coletto, CEO of Abacus Data. They explore the significant shifts in voter sentiment influenced by key events such as Justin Trudeau's exit, Mark Carney's rise, and the impact of Donald Trump. The discussion delves into demographic changes, the emergence of a precarity mindset among voters, and the implications for the Liberal Party and the NDP. The conversation also touches on regional dynamics, particularly in Quebec, and the challenges of predicting voter turnout in the upcoming federal election.

00:00 Introduction

01:24 Shifting Political Landscape in Canada

04:08 Is this temporary or permanent?

05:13 The demographic shift in people’s attitudes towards the Liberals

06:52 Understanding the precarity mindset

09:40 Why Mark Carney has an advantage

12:19 The collapse of the NDP vote?

15:50 How do projection models work?

17:51 The incumbency factor

20:33 Regional dynamics in the Quebec factor

23:20 Undecided voters and voter turnout

25:05 Election call predictions