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Professor Ben Flube, an expert on megaprojects and project delivery, discusses the challenges of large-scale ventures in different sectors like IT, transport infrastructure, mining, and energy projects. He highlights the common issue of projects being late, over budget, and failing to deliver promised benefits. Flube emphasizes the need for better leadership and skills in managing these projects efficiently.
Flube introduces the 'Iron Law' of project management, stating that around 9% of projects are on budget and on schedule, with only half a percent delivering the promised benefits. Supported by extensive research and data from over 16,000 projects, he highlights the consistent poor performance of major projects across various sectors.
Flube discusses the impact of psychological biases, such as optimism, on project outcomes. He emphasizes the importance of debiasing strategies in decision-making to counter cognitive biases and improve project success rates. Flube underscores the need for decision-makers to acknowledge their biases and focus on objective analysis.
Flube explains how optimism bias in budgeting and scheduling leads to cost overruns and delays in projects. He references behavioral science research to highlight the cognitive biases affecting decision-making. By addressing biases and using debiasing methods, project leaders can mitigate risks and enhance project outcomes.
Despite challenges in project delivery, Flube remains optimistic about the energy transition. He cites successful projects like solar and wind energy as examples of efficient and scalable solutions. Flube's insights on optimizing project management and learning from past failures provide a valuable perspective on navigating the complexities of large-scale ventures.
This week’s guest on Cleaning Up is Bent Flyvbjerg. Bent is Emeritus Professor at the University of Oxford and is the most cited scholar in the world on the subject of megaprojects. Bent’s latest book, released this year, is How Big Things Get Done, on the science of successful project delivery.
Michael and Bent discussed the many, substantial implications of Bent’s research for the net-zero transition, including the stark fact that solar and wind projects sit at the top of the tree when it comes to arriving on time and on budget, with nuclear languishing at the very bottom.
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Links and Related Episodes
Bent’s latest book is How Big Things Get Done: https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/672118/how-big-things-get-done-by-bent-flyvbjerg-and-dan-gardner/
Watch Episode 58 with John Redfern, CEO of Eavor: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MU8TDupVvjM
Watch Episode 92 with Simon Morrish, CEO of Xlinks: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m6KIMswZkWA
Watch Episode 116 with Tom Samson, former CEO of Rolls Royce SMR: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sjThq8c3tT4
Watch Episode 122 with Professor Sir Chris Llewellyn Smith: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y1_gL_XXaQQ
Guest Bio
Bent is among the most cited scholars in the world on Project Management, Planning, Infrastructure and Cities. He has 30 years of experience as an adviser to government and business, including the US, UK, and Chinese governments and Fortune 500 companies. He has consulted on some of the largest projects in the world, from High-Speed 2 in the UK and the California High-Speed Rail project, each the largest civil construction project ever in their respective countries.
Bent is the author or editor of 10 books and more than 200 papers, translated into 20 languages, including Megaprojects and Risk: An Anatomy of Ambition (2014) and this year’s How Big Things Get Done. He has received numerous honours and awards, among them a knighthood and two Fulbright scholarships. Bent is chairman of Oxford Global Projects, and was formerly the Academic Director of Oxford's MSc in Major Programme Management.
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