Goldman Sachs Exchanges
Tariffs: What’s ahead and why it matters
Feb 13, 2025
Alec Phillips, Goldman Sachs' chief political economist, teams up with Kamakshya Trivedi, head of Global Foreign Exchange and Emerging Markets Strategy, to dissect the current tariff landscape. They explore whether we're on the brink of a global trade war and its implications for markets and economies. The duo discusses how rapidly implemented tariffs could affect inflation, economic growth, and investor strategies. They also shed light on the interconnectedness of trade policies, and the uncertainty surrounding future negotiations. Brace for insights that matter!
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Quick takeaways
- Recent tariff implementations signal a more aggressive trade stance, raising concerns over potential retaliatory measures from affected countries.
- While the U.S. may experience manageable growth impacts, tariffs are expected to exacerbate economic slowdowns in other countries, particularly China.
Deep dives
Recent Tariff Announcements and Their Implications
Recent tariff announcements have rapidly unfolded, with significant proposals impacting major trading partners like China, Canada, and Mexico. Following an initial expectation of delays, tariffs were proposed and implemented sooner than anticipated, particularly for China. The announcement of a 10% tariff on Chinese imports and the increase of existing steel and aluminum tariffs without exemptions have led to an immediate rise in effective tariff rates. These developments signal a shift toward a more aggressive trade stance, raising questions about potential retaliatory measures from affected countries.
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