The 10-Year Hit a 24-Year High. Nobody Is Buying Puts. Are You Watching the Wrong Market?

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Oct 3, 2026

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Andy Constan, macro investor and strategist; Brent Kochuba, options-market analyst; and Eric Pachman, creator of Data for the People, unpack markets at a crossroads. Rising yields, heavy debt supply and resilient growth challenge rate-relief bets. Options flows reveal surprising calm. Diesel shortages could reignite inflation, while AI spending, productivity and adoption raise fresh questions for investors.

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ADVICE

Higher Yields Restore Bonds’ Portfolio Role

Consider bonds more constructively after the selloff because higher yields improve their portfolio role, even without expecting large returns.
Constan favors bonds as a long-term allocation and a limited speculative position, while remaining modestly bearish on stocks.

INSIGHT

Bond Volatility Is Sending A Warning

Bond volatility reached extreme levels while equity volatility stayed unusually calm, creating a disconnect investors may be underestimating.
TLT implied volatility reached its highest rank, yet the VIX remained near 16 and traders showed little equity downside fear.

INSIGHT

Traders Are Betting On Rate Relief

Options traders favored calls in rate-sensitive assets and bonds, effectively betting that yields would fall and equities would rebound.
That positioning leaves markets vulnerable if investors collectively abandon the expected bond rally and suddenly hedge equity downside.

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Andy Constan, Brent Kochuba and Eric Pachman examine rising bond yields, options positioning and the inflation risks facing stocks. What happens if the rate relief traders are betting on never arrives?

On this month's Last Call, Jack Forehand and Matt Zeigler connect three perspectives on the market. Andy Constan explains why stronger growth and debt supply can push yields higher without signaling a bond crisis. Brent Kochuba examines options flows that suggest traders are still leaning toward a rebound. Eric Pachman traces the path from refinery constraints and diesel shortages to freight costs and consumer inflation. Jack and Matt close with the investment implications of AI spending, efficiency and adoption.

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Topics covered:

Andy Constan on growth, AI capital spending and the supply of debt
Why Andy Constan sees more attractive bonds without calling for a recession
How higher yields can constrain stock returns even when growth remains strong
Brent Kochuba on bond volatility, calm equities and bets on falling yields
Why Brent Kochuba is watching both upside surprises and downside risk
Eric Pachman on crack spreads and why cheaper crude may not mean cheaper fuel
How diesel prices can flow through freight bills into CPI
Eric Pachman on wage inequality and what national averages miss
AI spending, productivity and the difference between slower growth and contraction
The practical obstacles to bringing AI agents into everyday life

Chapters:00:00 Rising yields and the outlook for stocks05:26 Andy Constan: Growth, debt supply and higher yields12:01 Why bonds look more attractive after the selloff18:33 Brent Kochuba: Options flows and bets on rate relief23:21 Equity complacency and risks in both directions31:12 Eric Pachman: Diesel shortages, crack spreads and inflation40:06 Wage inequality and the limits of average inflation44:40 AI capital spending, productivity and investment returns50:34 AI adoption, automation and everyday obstacles

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No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.