NAB Morning Call
Weekend Edition: Harris or Trump. Who wins. What changes?
Oct 25, 2024
John Barron, an ABC journalist and co-host of Planet America, dives into the battleground of the upcoming US elections. He highlights the neck-and-neck race between Trump and Harris, questioning the reliability of polls and betting odds. Barron discusses Trump's potential policies, like tariff increases and immigration strategies, while shedding light on the challenges faced by traditional polling methods. The conversation also touches on the complex motivations driving Trump's political tactics and upcoming election uncertainties.
37:49
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Quick takeaways
- Polls indicate a close race between Trump and Harris, but betting odds suggest Trump may have the upper hand, revealing discrepancies in voter sentiment.
- Regardless of the election outcome, significant policy changes are unlikely due to government structure, political polarization, and the emphasis on cautious governance.
Deep dives
Polls vs. Betting Odds
Current polling presents a close race between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris, with Harris leading by a small margin in national polls. However, betting odds suggest a significant advantage for Trump, indicating a potential underestimation of his support, similar to trends seen in previous elections. This discrepancy raises questions about the accuracy of polls, particularly given that a large segment of Trump supporters may choose not to participate in surveys due to distrust of media. Furthermore, the dynamics of likely voters and historical patterns from past elections complicate the accuracy of polling data.
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