Polling vs. Betting: Gauging Political Sentiment

Friday 18th October 2024

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They are neck and neck in the polls, so the US election could go either way, although markets are responding, to an extent, to betting odds which are showing Trump is the clear winner. The ABC’s John Barron reckons you have to be careful about betting odds. They often represent wishes rather than rational decisions. And polling data also has its weaknesses, as research companies struggle to find representative respondents. So, who will win and what changes if its Trump? Would he really push on with 20 percent tariffs on all US imports and the deportation of millions of undocumented migrants? John knows US politics well. He co-hosts the ABC’s Americast, and has written several books on the subject, including a history of US political campaigns called ‘Vote For me’ . On today’s Weekend edition he joins Phil to provide interesting insights into a man who is more bent on power than policy.  

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