Facts vs Feelings with Ryan Detrick & Sonu Varghese
Talking About the Sahm Rule and Unemployment with Claudia Sahm (Ep. 61)
Nov 22, 2023
Claudia Sahm, former Federal Reserve economist and leading expert on macroeconomic policy, joins Ryan Detrick & Sonu Varghese to discuss the Sahm Rule as an indicator of recessions, the impact of COVID-19 on the economy, and insights from her time at the Federal Reserve. They explore topics such as the mismatch between the supply of workers and the demand for jobs, the importance of shelter inflation in the Consumer Price Index, and the potential impact of recent productivity growth on long-term investments.
49:10
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Quick takeaways
- A potential surprise in the macroeconomic landscape for 2024 could be a significant pickup in productivity growth, influencing interest rates and reshaping the economy for a more robust and prosperous future.
- There is a disconnect between sentiment and the actual state of the economy, with factors like media coverage and social media amplification of negativity contributing to a gloomier outlook, despite many Americans being financially better off than before the pandemic.
Deep dives
Productivity growth is a potential surprise in the economy
One potential surprise in the macroeconomic landscape for 2024 could be a significant pickup in productivity growth. This development could have positive implications for long-term investments and economic prosperity. If productivity growth holds up, it could influence interest rates and reshape the economy, potentially leading to a more robust and prosperous future.
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