

Could Israel's Gaza gamble be paying off?
54 snips Oct 3, 2025
Aaron David Miller, a seasoned diplomat and Middle East peace negotiator, dives into Israel's precarious balance of military strength and diplomatic isolation. He discusses how Israel's battlefield victories come at a cost, with global support diminishing as Arab states fear Trump’s influence. Miller highlights the complexities of Gulf Arab positions, the performative responses from Europe regarding Palestinian recognition, and how Netanyahu's reliance on Trump shapes U.S.-Israel relations, revealing long-term risks to Israel's international standing.
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Military Success, Diplomatic Isolation
- Israel has achieved clear military dominance in Gaza and the region.
- That success contrasts with growing diplomatic isolation and reputational costs.
No Clean Yes In Peace Deals
- Aaron David Miller says peace proposals rarely get a clean yes and require long, complex negotiations.
- He warns Trump's choice will be to accept a conditional Hamas response or resume major Israeli offensives.
Conditional Withdrawal And Occupation Shift
- Israel demands conditional withdrawal tied to Hamas demilitarization and longer-term presence.
- This reflects a post-October 7 shift toward physically occupying key areas for border security.