Mostly Growth

OpenAI’s Impossible Math: $500B or Bust?

12 snips
Nov 19, 2025
Dive into the financial challenges OpenAI faces in reaching a staggering $500 billion revenue goal. The hosts break down the revenue streams from subscriptions to advertising, comparing potential profits with giants like Netflix and Amazon. They share personal mishaps, including a LinkedIn lockout and a failed startup in travel experiences. The discussion also touches on hiring practices and the chaos of software sprawl, all while seamlessly blending humor and insightful analysis.
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ANECDOTE

Failed Travel Startup From A Honeymoon Problem

  • Kyle started Bubble Booking after a canceled honeymoon dolphin trip highlighted fragmented tour inventory.
  • The startup failed due to poor LTV:CAC and low frequency, low-ticket dynamics.
INSIGHT

Why Tours Are Tough Marketplace Bets

  • Tour and activities marketplaces face the 'low frequency, low ticket' trap that requires massive volume to work.
  • Acquiring both consumers and operators often doubles go-to-market costs.
INSIGHT

The $500B Math Is A Multi-Front Problem

  • OpenAI would need to combine massive consumer subscriptions, ad revenue, and commerce take-rates to approach a $500B run rate.
  • Each channel has realistic limits so they must lead with one and layer others strategically.
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