OpenAI’s Impossible Math: $500B or Bust?
Mostly Growth
OpenAI's $500B Revenue Question
CJ asks how OpenAI could reach $500 billion ARR and frames the discussion around current revenue mix.
In this episode of Mostly Growth, CJ and Kyle break down the brutal math behind OpenAI’s path to a $500B revenue future—unpacking how much would realistically need to come from consumer subscriptions, B2B APIs, advertising, and commerce. Using comparisons to Netflix, Meta, Google, Amazon, and Snapchat, they map out the limits of each revenue stream and debate whether OpenAI can ever become both the world’s largest subscription business and a top-tier ad platform. Along the way, they detour into business blunders (including Kyle getting locked out of LinkedIn for being “too efficient”), unpack why CJ’s startup in the travel-experience space failed, and riff on everything from recruiting economics to software sprawl.
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LINKS:
Mostly Metrics: https://www.mostlymetrics.com
CJ on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/cj-gustafson-13140948/
Growth Unhinged: https://www.growthunhinged.com/
Kyle on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/kyle-poyar/
Slacker Stuff: https://www.slackerstuff.com/
Ben on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/slackerstuff/
https://www.mostlymetrics.com/p/klook-ipo-s1-breakdown
https://openai.com/index/openai-amd-strategic-partnership/
https://www.notoriousplg.ai/p/notorious-openais-revenue-breakdown
https://evoca.tv/netflix-user-statistics/
https://www.yaguara.co/amazon-prime-statistics/
https://www.cnbc.com/select/amazon-prime-is-it-worth-it/
https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/SNAP/snap/revenue
https://www.businessofapps.com/data/youtube-statistics/
https://saad-report.rippling.com/result/
https://x.com/artman/status/1988733285086687729?s=46
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RELATED EPISODES:
Grindr’s $0 CAC Secret from the CFO Who Launched Disney+ | Vanna Krantz
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TIMESTAMPS:
00:00:00 Preview and Intro
00:01:25 Sponsors – Metronome, Pulley
00:03:53 Return from Sponsors and Show Kickoff
00:04:09 Klook IPO and the Global Tours Market
00:09:53 Real World MBA and Startup Lessons
00:10:27 OpenAI’s Path to $500 Billion
00:11:02 Revenue Makeup – ChatGPT, API, and Anthropic
00:12:15 Benchmarking Consumer Subscription Giants
00:13:23 Ads, Take Rate, and Diversification Strategy
00:19:27 Scaling to $200B in Subscriptions
00:20:06 Meta-Sized Ad Ambitions for OpenAI
00:21:35 Flash Forward – Can OpenAI Really Get There?
00:22:45 YouTube, Tokens, and Streaming Models
00:23:49 CJ’s Recruiting Venture – Mostly Talent
00:29:28 Building the Whole Finance Department
00:31:29 Experimental Pricing Model Proposal
00:33:01 Iterating on Warm Intro Structure
00:35:23 CJ’s Preferred Recruiting Model
00:36:15 Report from Rippling – Software as a Disservice
00:39:40 LinkedIn Lockout: Kyle’s Wake-Up Call
00:40:40 CJ’s Bookmarking Blunder & Twitter UI Rant
00:41:27 Social Media Game Push – NYT, LinkedIn, Facebook
00:42:27 Apple’s “iPhone Pocket” & Borat Comparison
00:43:00 Final Banter: Satchels & Sign-Off
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SPONSORS:
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Pulley is the cap table management platform built for CFOs and finance leaders who need reliable, audit-ready data and intuitive workflows, without the hidden fees or unreliable support. Switch in as little as 5 days and get 25% off your first year: https://pulley.com/mostlymetrics
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