You Are Not So Smart 313 - The 3.5 Percent Rule - Erica Chenoweth
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May 12, 2025 
Erica Chenoweth, a political scientist and Harvard professor, discusses her groundbreaking '3.5 Percent Rule,' which reveals that just a small fraction of the population can drive major societal changes. She highlights the power of nonviolent resistance over violence, emphasizing its greater success rates. Chenoweth reflects on her early inspirations in political science, rooted in historical conflicts. The conversation also delves into individual agency and the necessity of strategic planning for effective collective action.
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Nonviolence Doubles Success Rate
- Nonviolent campaigns succeed more than twice as often as violent ones from 1900 to 2006.
- Peaceful tactics more effectively pressure governments and reduce public support for repression.
3.5% Participation Threshold
- Achieving 3.5% active and sustained participation in a movement always led to success in the dataset.
- This threshold is a powerful indicator, not a magic number or guarantee.
Factionalization Threatens Movements
- Opposing regimes use factionalization to disrupt movements and prevent unified 3.5% participation.
- Movements counter this by fostering unity and nonviolent discipline to increase effectiveness.
