Capital Allocators – Inside the Institutional Investment Industry Annie Duke – Thinking More in Bets (Capital Allocators, EP.76)
18 snips
Nov 19, 2018 
Annie Duke, a decision-making expert and former world-class poker player, shares riveting insights from her book, "Thinking in Bets." She discusses the complexities of separating signal from noise in decision-making and how biases can cloud judgment. Duke emphasizes the importance of collaborative decision groups and continuous learning. With engaging poker anecdotes, she reveals strategies for navigating uncertainty and managing groupthink, while offering valuable lessons on being a woman in a male-dominated environment.
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Decisions Are Noisy Learning Problems
- Poker provided Annie Duke a laboratory to study learning under noisy feedback and uncertainty.
- She realized decision-making across life mirrors language acquisition: separating signal from noise is central.
Results Mislead About Decision Quality
- Outcomes cast a cognitive shadow that makes judging decision quality hard in retrospect.
- Humans prefer causal stories and overfit results to decisions, misattributing luck as skill.
Every Decision Is A Bet On Beliefs
- Every decision is a bet built on beliefs about facts and predictions.
- Those beliefs form the foundation of choices and determine how we allocate limited resources.
