Who Is Going to Win the 2024 U.S. Elections? | Henry Olsen

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Nov 4, 2024

Henry Olsen, a political analyst and author known for his insights on electoral dynamics, shares his outlook on the 2024 presidential race. He discusses the importance of swing states and the significance of early voting trends. Olsen believes this election may rival the closeness of 2000, with potential economic implications depending on the outcome. The role of J.D. Vance is highlighted as a key figure in transforming Republican politics, while the challenges of trust in electoral recounts and the impact of Trump’s economic policies are examined, revealing a highly charged political landscape ahead.

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INSIGHT

Data-Driven Analysis

Focus on data like partisan affiliation, turnout, and demographics.
These factors, alongside favorability ratings, significantly influence election outcomes.

INSIGHT

Likeability's Impact

Likeability is strongly correlated with voting decisions.
Most Americans like at least one candidate, influencing their vote.

INSIGHT

Enthusiasm and Early Voting

Early voting data suggests higher Republican enthusiasm than Democrats, except for white college-educated voters.
While African-American early voting is down, they may still vote on election day.

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In Episode 387 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with political analyst, author, and host of “Beyond the Polls,” Henry Olsen about the state of the 2024 presidential race and what to expect from what could be the most contested election in American history.

Henry tells us how each candidate is performing in the key swing states and districts that will determine this election, the frequency of early voting and how it compares to 2020, and shares his views on other predictive metrics that he is paying close attention to.

Henry believes that this election could be even closer than the one in 2000 between George W. Bush and Al Gore, an election that was ultimately determined by a narrow margin of 537 votes, along with a ruling by the Florida Supreme court to suspend any further recounts. The country is in a very different place today than it was two decades ago, and how any remotely similar scenario would play out this time is truly anyone’s guess.

Olsen and Kofinas also discuss the economic repercussions of a Trump victory, the role of J.D. Vance as a potentially transformational figure in Republican politics, the effect that a loss on the part of the Democrats would have on their party’s realignment, and much more.

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Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou

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Episode Recorded on 10/31/2024