
ToKCast Ep 91: David Deutsch‘s ”The Fabric of Reality” Chapter 3 “Problem Solving” Part 2
Oct 1, 2021
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Chapters
Transcript
Episode notes
Science as Experimental Criticism
- Scientific problem solving centers on rational criticism, mainly through experimental testing that differentiates rival theories.
- This testing reveals which explanations produce false predictions and should be abandoned.
Asymmetry of Refutation and Confirmation
- A failed prediction invalidates the underlying explanation, but a correct prediction does not verify it.
- Confirmation only shows consistency, not truth, emphasizing the asymmetry between refutation and confirmation.
UFO Beliefs and Confirmation Bias
- UFO enthusiasts confirm their beliefs by seeking consistency with their theories instead of refutations.
- This exemplifies the error of confirmation bias, mistaking consistency for proof.
