In this week’s episode of Econ 102, Noah Smith, with special guest Nathan Labenz (host of AI podcast The Cognitive Revolution) breaks down the current landscape of U.S.-China relations and how once-allies became rivals under Xi Jinping's aggressive strategies. While China shows growing AI capabilities like DeepSeek, Smith emphasizes that the real concern isn't about AI models but rather military applications like autonomous drones and precision weapons, suggesting that the next decade represents a critical period for managing tensions and establishing deterrence.

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RECOMMENDED PODCAST:

Check out Nathan Labenz's podcast The Cognitive Revolution

Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-cognitive-revolution-ai-builders-researchers-and/id1669813431

Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/6yHyok3M3BjqzR0VB5MSyk

YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@CognitiveRevolutionPodcast/

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Highlights from the Episode:

• The US and China were largely de facto allies throughout the 20th century, except for brief periods like the Korean War.
• Xi Jinping's "great changes unseen in a century" doctrine signals intent to challenge US-led global order.
• US chip export controls have been effective at limiting China's advanced chip manufacturing.
• Military technology prioritizes maintaining a technological edge in precision weapons and autonomous systems, with conventional deterrence still key despite nuclear capabilities, while chip controls focus on preserving advantages in military applications over civilian technology.
• Concerns about AI competition include skepticism over maintaining US "AI supremacy," the potential difficulty in containing AI capabilities like those of DeepSeek, and the risk that an aggressive approach could escalate conflict.

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RECOMMENDED IN THIS EPISODE:

Noahpinion: https://www.noahpinion.blog/

Dwarkesh podcast with Sarah Paine https://youtu.be/fx6fakjQBdo?si=FR4ZGTGWzXsO4__E

Book: Rush Doshi, The Long Game https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/52617647-the-long-game

Book: John Mearsheimer Conventional Deterrence https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/224128.Conventional_Deterrence

Noahpinion essay: Simple Lessons from China's Big AI Breakthrough https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/some-simple-lessons-from-chinas-big

Noahpinion Essay: The Elemental Foe https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/the-elemental-foe?utm_source=publication-search