The Julia La Roche Show #291 Henrik Zeberg: Everything Bubble Bust Coming After Final Blow-Off Top
16 snips
Oct 2, 2025 Henrik Zeberg, head macroeconomist at SwissBlock and author of The Monetary House of Cards, dives into his intriguing business cycle framework. He predicts a severe crash following a final blow-off top, with the S&P possibly hitting 7,500. Zeberg warns gold is in a 'mini bubble' before a potential decline, and shares his bold thesis on how post-deflationary Fed policies could lead to stagflation. He highlights the disconnect between the financial markets and the real economy, urging a focus on leading indicators for better policy timing.
AI Snips
Chapters
Books
Transcript
Episode notes
Leading Indicators Said Titanic Hit Iceberg
- Henrik Zeberg's business-cycle model signaled leading indicators crossed in November 2024, meaning the economy has hit the iceberg.
- That signal precedes the recession and can take many months before coincident indicators confirm the sink.
Imminent Recession Signals Still Missing
- Imminent recession indicators (credit spreads, yield spreads, initial claims) have not yet spiked.
- Zeberg uses these as the short-term triggers before declaring the recession has begun.
Markets Aren't Leading Economic Turns
- Markets do not reliably lead the economy; unemployment bottoms before stock-market tops.
- Zeberg warns investors rely on the wrong indicators and risk topping out after unemployment turns.
