CBR Business Cycle Framework Explained

Henrik Zeberg, head macro economist at SwissBlock and author of The Monetary House of Cards, presents his business cycle framework showing leading indicators crossed in November 2024 (Titanic hit iceberg), but imminent recession indicators haven't triggered yet (ship not sinking). He sees a final blow-off top with S&P potentially hitting 7,500 and NASDAQ 28,000 before a potential 50% crash that would still leave valuations at third-highest ever with market cap to GDP at unprecedented 220%. Zeberg warns gold is in a "mini bubble" front-running deflationary collapse and will decline when dollar bottoms, despite $35,000 long-term target. His most provocative thesis: after deflationary bust, Fed money printing will cause stagflation because "Mrs. Johnson" will hoard rate cut savings rather than spend, while Fed remains "way too late" using lagging indicators like "driving by looking in rear window."

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Links:

X: https://x.com/HenrikZeberg

Substack: https://henrikzeberg.substack.com/

Book: https://buy.stripe.com/aFacN62DQdYFbZt9APaR201

0:00 Welcome and introduction - Henrik Zeberg

1:13 Zeberg Business Cycle framework - four phases explained

3:28 Leading indicators crossed November 2024 - Titanic hit iceberg

5:43 Imminent recession indicators - credit spreads, yield spreads, initial claims

8:39 Markets don't lead - unemployment bottoms before stock market tops

13:52 Market cap to GDP at 220% - unprecedented bubble territory

16:08 Elliott Wave targets - S&P 7,500, NASDAQ 28,000 possible

18:40 Singapore index - canary in coal mine for global economy

19:17 Everything bubble explained - rate suppression distorted all valuations

22:44 Most dangerous when people don't recognize bubble

24:37 Fed micromanaging creates inefficient capital allocation

27:05 S&P could fall 50% to 3,350 and still be third highest valuation ever

29:59 Gold mini bubble - front-running deflationary collapse

32:54 Dollar bottom coming - gold decline ahead despite long-term bullishness

34:03 Own physical gold but don't buy more right now

37:05 Stagflation thesis - deflationary bust then high inflation

42:49 Mrs. Johnson won't spend rate cut savings - she'll hoard it

44:57 Fed way too late - rearranging deck chairs on Titanic

48:43 Housing affordability

51:01 Central bank hubris

53:55 Fed using lagging indicators - driving by looking in rear window

57:42 Peak euphoria warning - when it feels best, be most careful