Grindr’s $0 CAC Secret from the CFO Who Launched Disney+ | Vanna Krantz

Nov 17, 2025

In this engaging discussion, Vanna Krantz, former CFO of Disney+ and Grindr, shares her journey in launching subscription models under pressure. She reveals the art and science of forecasting, emphasizing the unique challenges faced during Disney+’s debut. Vanna highlights Grindr’s impressive 40% EBITDA margins and explains how low marketing costs contributed to its public offering. She also offers insightful advice for women in leadership, encouraging persistence and adaptability for career longevity.

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ANECDOTE

First-Day Subscriber Surprise

Vanna says Disney+ beat its first-year subscriber projection on day one, forcing a full model redo.
The initial forecast was so off it required rebuilding with real data and new assumptions.

insights

INSIGHT

Forecasting Is Art Plus Science

Forecasting blends art and science: business optimism meets finance's data-driven skepticism.
Finance must listen to the business while translating enthusiasm into realistic, data-backed forecasts.

question_answer

ANECDOTE

Launch-Day Outage Turned Win

On Disney+ launch day the CDN failed for three hours, so the team paused performance marketing until fixed.
Bob Iger announced 10 million subscribers that night, turning a fumble into a celebrated demand story.

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How Vanna Joined BAMTech and Met Disney Leadership

06:09 • 5min

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Forecasting Disney+ Launch with No Precedent

10:44 • 2min

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Content Strategy and Retention: The Mandalorian Effect

The Art and Science of Forecasting and Messaging

20:20 • 5min

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Launch Day Chaos and Celebrating 10 Million Subscribers

25:00 • 2min

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First Impressions of Grindr’s Financials

27:26 • 3min

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Grindr’s Efficient Economics and Global Fit

30:10 • 2min

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Defining Active Users and Reactivation Dynamics

32:29 • 4min

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Free vs Paid Strategy and Pricing Experiments

36:03 • 4min

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Sustaining Growth and the Headwind of Scale

40:00 • 32sec

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Advice for Women Seeking Executive Roles

40:32 • 3min

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Perspectives on Work–Life Balance and Career Timing

43:30 • 4min

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A Mistake, Tools, and Expense Stories

• Mentioned in 8 episodes

Beauty and the Beast

Jan Brett

This adaptation of the classic fairy tale 'Beauty and the Beast' by Jan Brett retains the core elements of the story while adding unique details. The narrative follows a merchant and his three daughters, one of whom is named Beauty for her kindness and beauty. When the merchant loses his fortune, Beauty agrees to live with the Beast in his palace to save her father's life. In the palace, she is surrounded by animal servants and develops a tender relationship with the Beast. The story explores themes of love, gratitude, and the transformation of the Beast back into a human. Jan Brett's illustrations, created with colored pencil and watercolor, add rich details and background elements that enhance the story.

In this episode of Run the Numbers, CJ Gustafson sits down with Vanna Krantz, former CFO of Disney+ and Grindr, to explore what it takes to lead finance through massive inflection points. Vanna reflects on building Disney+’s subscription model from scratch under Bob Iger’s leadership and the pressure of launching a global product with no precedent. She discusses forecasting as both science and art, and the importance of appreciating high-stakes moments amid chaos. Shifting to Grindr, Vanna breaks down how the company went public with remarkable efficiency—boasting 40% EBITDA margins and under 200 employees—and how she modeled for a user base that consistently churns and returns. She also opens up about career longevity, work-life balance, and helping women find sustainability and acceleration in leadership.

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LINKS:

Vanna on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/vannakrantz/

CJ on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/cj-gustafson-13140948/

Mostly metrics: https://www.mostlymetrics.com

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RELATED EPISODES:

Monetizing Community Engagement: The Business of Fitness with Strava CFO Lily Yang

https://youtu.be/zlLb5yZDKQE

“Let’s Just See What Breaks” — Intuit’s CFO on Being a Disruptor When You’re Already the Incumbent

https://youtu.be/Le1D9HXHvGI

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TIMESTAMPS:

00:00:00 Preview and Intro

00:03:02 Sponsors – Aleph, Fidelity Private Shares, and Metronome

00:06:09 Meeting at A16z and Disney Plus Discussion

00:07:13 Interviewing with Bob Iger and Joining Bamtech Media

00:10:43 Forecasting the Unknown at Disney Plus

00:13:01 Launch Strategy – Mandalorian and Retention

00:15:15 Sponsors – Mercury, RightRev, and Tipalti

00:19:23 Forecasting, Retention Curves, and the Art vs. Science Balance

00:22:20 Lessons in Art and Science of Finance at Disney

00:25:08 Launch Day Chaos and the Disney Plus CDN Outage

00:26:24 Celebrating the 10 Million Subscriber Milestone

00:27:21 Grindr IPO and Financial Discovery

00:32:42 Active User Metrics and Reactivation Trends

00:34:29 Seasonality and Human Behavior in App Usage

00:36:02 Free vs. Paid Users and Revenue Optimization

00:38:21 Pricing Strategy and Global Monetization

00:40:23 Women in Leadership and Staying in the Game

00:43:30 Work–Life Balance and Career Seasons

00:46:12 Wisdom, Experience, and Staying in the Game

00:50:08 Finance Stack, Craziest Expense, and Closing Remarks

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#RunTheNumbersPodcast #CFOInsights #DisneyPlus #GrindrIPO #Leadership

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