The Art and Science of Forecasting and Messaging

In this episode of Run the Numbers, CJ Gustafson sits down with Vanna Krantz, former CFO of Disney+ and Grindr, to explore what it takes to lead finance through massive inflection points. Vanna reflects on building Disney+’s subscription model from scratch under Bob Iger’s leadership and the pressure of launching a global product with no precedent. She discusses forecasting as both science and art, and the importance of appreciating high-stakes moments amid chaos. Shifting to Grindr, Vanna breaks down how the company went public with remarkable efficiency—boasting 40% EBITDA margins and under 200 employees—and how she modeled for a user base that consistently churns and returns. She also opens up about career longevity, work-life balance, and helping women find sustainability and acceleration in leadership.

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LINKS:

Vanna on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/vannakrantz/

CJ on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/cj-gustafson-13140948/

Mostly metrics: https://www.mostlymetrics.com

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TIMESTAMPS:

00:00:00 Preview and Intro

00:03:02 Sponsors – Aleph, Fidelity Private Shares, and Metronome

00:06:09 Meeting at A16z and Disney Plus Discussion

00:07:13 Interviewing with Bob Iger and Joining Bamtech Media

00:10:43 Forecasting the Unknown at Disney Plus

00:13:01 Launch Strategy – Mandalorian and Retention

00:15:15 Sponsors – Mercury, RightRev, and Tipalti

00:19:23 Forecasting, Retention Curves, and the Art vs. Science Balance

00:22:20 Lessons in Art and Science of Finance at Disney

00:25:08 Launch Day Chaos and the Disney Plus CDN Outage

00:26:24 Celebrating the 10 Million Subscriber Milestone

00:27:21 Grindr IPO and Financial Discovery

00:32:42 Active User Metrics and Reactivation Trends

00:34:29 Seasonality and Human Behavior in App Usage

00:36:02 Free vs. Paid Users and Revenue Optimization

00:38:21 Pricing Strategy and Global Monetization

00:40:23 Women in Leadership and Staying in the Game

00:43:30 Work–Life Balance and Career Seasons

00:46:12 Wisdom, Experience, and Staying in the Game

00:50:08 Finance Stack, Craziest Expense, and Closing Remarks

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SPONSORS:

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#RunTheNumbersPodcast #CFOInsights #DisneyPlus #GrindrIPO #Leadership

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