20VC Roundtable: NEW FORMAT: Why the Seed Investing Model is Broken, How to Make Money at Seed Moving Forward; Who Wins and Who Loses, Why Venture Value Add Platforms are BS and Failed and Why There Will be an IPO per Week in H2 2024
The seed investing model is broken and needs to shift towards a more bespoke approach that focuses on unique and innovative ideas.
De-risking businesses systematically and efficiently is crucial for successful seed investing, requiring a reset and refocus on de-risking businesses at each growth stage.
There is a growing recognition of the importance of capital efficiency in seed investing, with a focus on building great businesses in niche markets that have been overlooked due to TAM limitations.
Deep dives
The Evolution of Seed Investing
The traditional factory model of seed investing, where seed funds act as the first step in a predictable production line of startups, is no longer effective. This model relied on the ability to manufacture good but not great companies that fit a certain market demand. However, it has become clear that this approach does not produce the desired outcomes in the long run. Seed investments are now shifting towards a more bespoke approach, focusing on unique and innovative ideas that may not follow the traditional factory line. The emphasis is on finding interesting and off-theme opportunities that have the potential for massive returns.
The Importance of Efficient De-risking
De-risking businesses systematically and efficiently is crucial for successful seed investing. In the past few years, there has been a trend of overfunding companies without properly de-risking them, leading to poor risk-return trade-offs in later stages. To address this, there is a need to reset and refocus on de-risking businesses at each stage of their growth. This approach involves breaking away from the previous alphabet soup funding rounds and encouraging founders to build good companies before trying to jump to great companies. By adopting a more efficient de-risking strategy, venture capital investors can increase their chances of finding significant returns.
The Shift Towards Capital Efficiency
There is a growing recognition of the importance of capital efficiency in seed investing. Startups that can make money at low levels of scale and demonstrate profitability have the potential for significant returns, even in markets with smaller total addressable markets. While there is still an allure for startups with unlimited TAMs, the reality is that most businesses are small and focused. The key is to focus on building great businesses in niche markets that have been overlooked due to TAM limitations. The emphasis is on starting with revenue and growth, making capital raising an option rather than a requirement.
Capital efficiency and the importance of proof
One key trend in venture capital is the increasing focus on capital efficiency and the importance of generating proof of a business's potential. Startups are now trying to figure out how to make money at low levels of scale, and investors are placing greater emphasis on tangible results rather than relying solely on narratives. Generating proof of a business's viability is crucial, and startups need to demonstrate momentum and positive trends to attract further investment.
Shift towards smaller, profitable businesses
There is a growing shift towards smaller, profitable businesses in the venture world. Investors are recognizing the value of owning a majority stake in a business that may not reach unicorn status but can still be highly profitable and provide optionality for future growth. Founders, too, are reconsidering the traditional mindset of chasing billion-dollar valuations and are opting for businesses that offer greater ownership and control. This shift is driven by the realization that building a profitable, sustainable business brings happiness, wealth, and long-term opportunities.
Sam Lessin is a Co-Founder and Partner @ Slow Ventures with a portfolio including the likes of Airtable, Robinhood, Slack, Solana, PillPack and many more unicorn companies. Prior to Slow, Sam was a VP Product at Facebook having sold his company to Meta.
Frank Rotman is a founding partner of QED Investors, one of the leading fintech-focused venture firms investing today with a portfolio including the likes of Klarna, Kavak, Quinto Andar, Credit Karma and more. As for Frank, prior to QED, Frank was one of the earliest analysts hired into Capital One and spent almost 13 years there helping build many of the company’s business units and operational areas.
Jason Lemkin is the Founder @ SaaStr one of the best-performing early-stage venture funds focused on SaaS. In the past, Jason has led investments in Algolia, Pipedrive, Salesloft, TalkDesk, and RevenueCat to name a few. Prior to SaaStr, Jason was an entrepreneur, selling EchoSign to Adobe for $100M where it is now a $250M ARR product.
In Today's Discussion on Why Seed is Broken We Discuss:
1. The Seed Model Was Broken and What Comes Now:
Why does Sam Lessin believe the model for seed of a "factory line" was broken?
What does he believe will replace it?
Why does Jason Lemkin argue that this might not be the case for SaaS and enterprise?
2. Round Construction: YC, Multi-Stage Funds and Party Rounds:
Why does Sam Lessin believe we have seen the end of party rounds? Why does Jason Lemkin disagree and we will see more than ever?
Why does Sam Lessin believe the factory model of YC churning out companies is over? Where does Jason Lemkin believe the value lies in the YC model?
Will the multi-stage funds remain in seed? How has their entrance and deployment changed the seed market?
3. VC Value Add at Seed: Is it BS?
Why does Jason believe all talent arms in venture firms have failed?
Why does Sam believe that no VCs provide value?
Do the best founders really need help? Why do Jason and Sam disagree?
4. What Happens Now:
Why does Jason believe that every manager can write off their fund from 2021?
Who will be the winners in seed in the next 10 years?
Why does Sam believe if you want to bet on AI, just bet on Meta or Microsoft?
What will happen to the many companies with no PMF but 10 years of runway?
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