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The Julia La Roche Show
#219 Campbell Harvey: End of Boom-Bust Cycle? | Will Yield Curve Show First False Signal?
Dec 12, 2024
Professor Campbell Harvey, a finance expert from Duke University and creator of the inverted yield curve, sheds light on the current economic landscape. He discusses the surprising resilience of the economy in 2023 and the potential end of the boom-bust cycle. The conversation dives into how technological innovations and the impact of wealthy consumers shape growth prospects. Harvey also critiques the Federal Reserve's policies and explores the implications of the inverted yield curve, offering insights into the future of U.S. economic stability.
01:04:49
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Quick takeaways
- The podcast discusses the controversial thesis that the U.S. economy may be transitioning from traditional boom-bust cycles to sustained growth despite recession forecasts.
- Technological advancements, particularly in decentralized technologies and AI, are expected to drive future productivity, but require careful management to address inequality concerns.
Deep dives
End of the Boom Bust Cycle?
The discussion explores the controversial idea that the economy may be reaching the end of the traditional boom and bust cycle. This stems from a recent analysis suggesting that despite expectations for a recession in 2023, robust economic growth has continued instead. Historically, there have been periods like the Great Moderation, where recession volatility decreased, leading some to predict the end of cycles, but caution is advised based on past experiences like the global financial crisis. The current health of the economy remains debatable, with indicators like the inverted yield curve suggesting potential risks that should not be ignored.
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