Economic Forecasting and Federal Reserve Policies

Professor Campbell Harvey, professor of finance at the Fuqua School of Business at Duke University and the inventor of the most famous recession indicator — the inverted yield curve — returns to The Julia La Roche Show for episode 219 to discuss the state of the economy, the yield curve, and what's ahead for U.S. growth.

Links:  

DeFI and the Future of Finance: https://www.amazon.com/DeFi-Future-Finance-Campbell-Harvey/dp/1119836018 https://www.fuqua.duke.edu/faculty/campbell-harvey https://people.duke.edu/~charvey/ https://twitter.com/camharvey

Timestamps:

00:02 Introduction to Professor Campbell Harvey

00:51 BlackRock's "end of boom-bust cycle" thesis

04:15 Historical perspective on market cycles

06:14 Impact of wealthy consumers on economy

07:13 Role of technological innovation

11:37 U.S. leadership in innovation

14:31 Growth prospects and productivity potential

16:09 Post-election growth outlook

24:56 U.S. debt and deficit challenges

28:16 Social Security sustainability issues

32:51 Inverted yield curve indicator discussion

40:11 Impact of technological innovations

45:21 Federal Reserve policy critique

50:20 Distortions from Fed's zero-rate policy

54:18 Future consequences of Fed decisions

59:40 Closing thoughts on U.S. prospects