Cautionary Tales with Tim Harford

The Man Who Bet His House on a Pop Song - A Eurovision Tale

19 snips
May 12, 2023
In this engaging discussion, Andrew Wright, a key member of the team behind the podcast, dives into the gamble taken by Daniel Gould, who placed his home on the line by betting on the Eurovision Song Contest. They explore the intricate blend of cultural insights and financial risk, illustrating how Daniel's keen analysis of voting patterns can lead to life-changing decisions. The conversation highlights the emotional rollercoaster of high-stakes betting, revealing both triumph and anxiety in the unpredictable world of Eurovision.
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ANECDOTE

Eurovision Betting Success

  • Daniel Gould bet on Eurovision and won enough in 2009 to pay off his apartment's mortgage.
  • He quit his job and traveled, funding trips with Eurovision bets, earning $50,000-$80,000 annually.
INSIGHT

Risky Betting Strategy

  • In investing, risking large sums for small, near-certain rewards is called "picking up pennies in front of a steamroller."
  • This is similar to some of Daniel's Eurovision bets.
ANECDOTE

Daniel's Stroke

  • After returning from New York in 2017, Daniel had a stroke in the hospital after a check-up.
  • Despite a quick recovery and changing medication, the stroke foreshadowed his later health issues.
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