Mark Leonard's World in 30 Minutes

German elections: Impact and implications for Europe

Feb 28, 2025

Jana Puglierin, head of ECFR's Berlin office, and Piotr Buras, head of ECFR's Warsaw office, offer deep insights into the aftermath of Germany's federal elections. They discuss the potential formation of a coalition government and the implications for European unity. With shifting alliances, how might Franco-German and Polish-German relations evolve? The podcast also critiques Germany's migration policy and explores how a new government could redefine its role in European defense and political dynamics, all while reflecting on the literary themes shaping these discussions.

38:13

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Episode guests

Jana Puglierin

Piotr Buras

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Episode notes

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Quick takeaways

The German elections resulted in a weakened position for the CDU-CSU coalition, potentially reshaping internal party dynamics and influencing future coalition negotiations.

The election outcome may strengthen Polish-German relations amidst a changing European landscape, contingent on the alignment between leaders Merz and Tusk.

Deep dives

Election Results and Implications

The recent German election showcased that the conservative CDU-CSU coalition won but fell below expectations, securing only 28.5% of the vote. This outcome places Friedrich Merz in a weakened position as he begins his leadership, while internal competitors within the party remain observant of his every move. In contrast, the Social Democrats, despite achieving their worst result, could hold significant negotiating power in coalition talks, as the dynamics favor a two- and-a-half party coalition. This scenario might alter the political landscape, allowing the Social Democrats to leverage their position despite their historical lows.

Intro

4min

Shifting Alliances: German Elections and European Dynamics

17min

Navigating Migration Policies and European Relations

4min

Evolving Franco-German Dynamics Post-Election

10min

Political Maneuvering and Key Ministries in German Government Formation

2min

Literary Reflections on Germany's Political Landscape

2min

The final episode of Searching for Deutschland—a special crossover with the World in 30 Minutes—sees experts from Berlin, London, Paris and Warsaw break down the result of Germany’s federal election and discuss what comes next. Coalition negotiations are underway; Germany's shifting political dynamics will shape the country's future while carrying significant implications for Europe.

This week Mark Leonard welcomes Jeremy Cliffe, ECFR editorial director and senior policy fellow; Jana Puglierin, ECFR’s Berlin office head and senior policy fellow; Marie Dumoulin, director of ECFR’s Wider Europe programme; and Piotr Buras, ECFR’s Warsaw office head and senior policy fellow, to discuss the results of Germany’s federal election. What kind of coalition is likely to emerge, and how stable will it be? How are Paris and Warsaw receiving the election result? Could Germany’s change in government lead to a closer Franco-German and Polish-German relationship? And what does the likelihood of Friedrich Merz as the next chancellor mean for the future of transatlantic ties?

Bookshelf:

Worte, die die Welt beherrschen by Jörg Lau

The Spin Dictators: The Changing Face of Tyranny in the 21st Century by Sergei Goryev and Daniel Treisman

Brothers and Ghosts by Khuê Pham

Confidence Man: The Making of Donald Trump and The Breaking of America by Maggie Haberman

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