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TIP 504: Opportunities in Energy, Metals and Mines w/ Will Thomson

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Dec 16, 2022

Will Thomson, founder and managing partner at Massif Capital, dives into the world of energy, materials, and mining investments. He discusses the importance of probabilistic thinking in making informed investment decisions. Thomson shares his insights on constructing the 'perfect portfolio' and analyzes why Uranium underperformed in 2022. He explores challenges in the sustainable energy supply chain and evaluates various investment risks, including political instability. Plus, he reveals a standout stock that earned him recognition in the Value Investors Club.

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ADVICE

Probabilistic Thinking in Investing

Apply probabilistic thinking by weighting scenarios within a DCF.
Sum probability-weighted values to capture a spread of potential outcomes.

ADVICE

Applying Probabilities to Free Cash Flow

Apply probabilities to scenarios after calculating free cash flow.
Weight each scenario's NPV to get a total probability-weighted value.

INSIGHT

Constructing a Perfect Portfolio

Construct a "perfect portfolio" by analyzing available research time and desired return.
Benchmark potential investments against this ideal to improve position sizing.

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