The Marketing Architects

Nerd Alert: The Dirichlet Effect: Predicting Brand Loyalty

Mar 20, 2025
This discussion dives into the Dirichlet model, challenging the notion of deep brand loyalty. It reveals that many consumers buy infrequently and are more influenced by brand accessibility than emotional connections. Marketers learn that expanding reach is crucial as acquisition drives loyalty, not the other way around. An eye-opening look at Coca-Cola shows that a large chunk of sales comes from occasional buyers, reshaping the way brands should approach their marketing strategies.
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ANECDOTE

Examples of Low Brand Loyalty

  • Rob buys gasoline based on convenience, often choosing stations on the right side of the road.
  • Elena buys pasta based on shape preference, not brand loyalty.
INSIGHT

Loyalty is an Illusion

  • Brand loyalty is an illusion; purchasing decisions are driven by availability and habit.
  • Market share is the primary driver of loyalty, not the other way around.
ADVICE

Focus on Acquisition

  • Focus on acquiring new customers, even light buyers, instead of maximizing existing customer loyalty.
  • Compete with all brands in your category, not just the market leader.
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