Episode 2: Is there a 500-pound panda in the room?
Apr 2, 2025
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Hugh White, an expert in strategic studies, Geoff Raby, a former ambassador to China, and Heather Smith, a veteran in national intelligence, delve into Australia's pressing security challenges. They critique historical foreign policy misjudgments and explore the nation's reliance on U.S. protection amidst rising Chinese influence. The discussion emphasizes the need for Australia to adopt a multifaceted strategy, engaging more deeply in multilateral relationships while balancing its own defense capabilities for regional stability.
Australia must reassess its security strategy in light of diminishing U.S. dominance and the rise of China and Russia.
Chinese military assertiveness necessitates a nuanced understanding of Australia-China relations, balancing security threats with economic ties.
Australia's role as a middle power is crucial in promoting regional stability and fostering coalitions amid a fragmented global order.
Deep dives
Reassessing Strategic Assumptions
Australia's foreign and defense policy assumptions have long been based on the expectation of U.S. dominance in the global order. These assumptions include the belief that the U.S. will reliably act as Australia’s security guarantor and maintain military superiority, particularly in the Asia-Pacific region. However, the recent geopolitical shifts, notably the rising influence of China and the challenges posed by Russia, have revealed that these expectations are increasingly flawed. The United States is no longer positioned to deter all potential threats to its allies, prompting the need for Australia to rethink its security strategy without relying on U.S. primacy.
The Reality of Chinese Influence
Chinese military expansion and assertiveness in the Asia-Pacific, particularly in the South China Sea, present new realities for Australia's security landscape. While discussions often center on the threat presented by China, the nation is also seen by some experts as a potential regional hegemon that may establish influence rather than outright aggression. The complex relationship between Australia and China necessitates a careful assessment of threats while recognizing that economic ties and interdependence exist alongside military considerations. A nuanced understanding of China’s ambitions is crucial, shifting away from a binary threat assessment and focusing on pragmatic engagement.
Implications of U.S. Isolationism
The shifting dynamics of global power highlight concerns about America’s retreat from its role as a leading authoritarian power under the Trump administration. This new isolationism poses direct questions for Australia regarding its reliance on the U.S. for military and intelligence support. With China's burgeoning influence and the unpredictable nature of U.S. foreign policy, Australia faces a daunting prospect of unsupervised regional security. The need for Australia to enhance its independent defense capabilities, while still leveraging its alliance with the U.S., is increasingly urgent.
Australia's Role in a Fragmented Order
As the international order faces fragmentation, Australia's role as a middle power becomes increasingly critical amid rising isolationism and protectionism. This situation calls for Australia to engage actively with regional partners and foster coalitions that promote stability and shared interests. The changing global environment necessitates that Australia not only provides support but also takes the lead in establishing norms and fostering cooperation in the Indo-Pacific region. Navigating this complex landscape requires a more assertive and independent approach to foreign policy that prioritizes Australia’s national interests while adapting to the realities of a multipolar world.
Future of Australia-China Relations
The future of Australia’s relationship with China is fraught with challenges, including differing ideologies and competing geopolitical interests. While China has become more assertive, particularly in its immediate neighborhood, Australia must strategically position itself to accommodate this rising power without sacrificing its national interests. The lack of open dialogue about confronting these challenges can lead to miscalculation and escalating tensions, underscoring the necessity for robust and candid discussions around Australia-China dynamics. A forward-looking policy that embraces pragmatic engagement while remaining vigilant about threats will be vital for Australia's security in this complex landscape.
Recorded at Malcolm Turnbull’s Sovereignty and Security forum held in Canberra.
This panel discusses the nature of the security threats Australia faces, and reassesses the assumptions that have informed our economic, foreign and defence policies.
Panellists include: Professor Hugh White, Emeritus Professor of Strategic Studies at ANU, founding Director of ASPI, worked for several Labor Leaders, and served in the Defence Department; Dr Geoff Raby, Australia’s Ambassador to China from 2007-11, served as Ambassador to the WTO in Geneva, and Ambassador to APEC; Dr Heather Smith, Secretary and Deputy Secretary across a range of portfolios, including Deputy Director-General of the Office of National Intelligence, and co-led the 2024 Independent Review of Australia’s National Intelligence Community.
