The Lawfare Podcast

Lawfare Daily: Russia’s Shadow War in the Baltic Sea

Feb 14, 2025

Minna Ålander, an Associate Fellow at Chatham House with a focus on European maritime security, joins to delve into recent incidents damaging underwater infrastructure in the Baltic Sea, possibly linked to Russian sabotage. The conversation highlights NATO’s efforts to enhance maritime security and the implications for civilian life. They discuss Russia's shadow fleet that allows it to bypass sanctions, environmental concerns, and the challenges of attributing responsibility in a landscape fraught with espionage tactics.

32:45

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Episode guests

Minna Ålander

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Quick takeaways

The Baltic Sea has experienced alarming underwater infrastructure sabotage incidents linked to Russia, raising significant concerns for NATO's maritime security strategy.

Despite these security threats, the resilience of the Baltic's infrastructure has prevented substantial civilian disruptions, highlighting the effectiveness of existing redundancy measures.

Deep dives

Rising Incidents of Sabotage

The Baltic Sea has witnessed a concerning increase in suspicious sabotage incidents over the past two years, particularly concerning undersea cables. Specifically, incidents from 2023 to 2025 involved damage to key infrastructure including gas pipelines and data cables between various Baltic nations. Despite strong indications that these acts could be linked to Russia, definitive proof of intent remains elusive, complicating investigations. Nonetheless, authorities have been increasingly alarmed by these events, reflecting broader geopolitical tensions in the region.

Intro

2min

Suspicious Sabotage in the Baltic Sea: Implications and Consequences

4min

Resilience and Vulnerabilities in the Baltic Sea

12min

Identity Theft and Maritime Shadows

9min

Navigating the Shadow Fleet

10min

Espionage Tactics and the Importance of Upholding Democratic Principles

4min

In the last two years, there have been at least four incidents of damaged underwater infrastructure in the Baltic Sea. Be it Russian deliberate sabotage or accidents, NATO is looking for ways to enhance Europe’s maritime security.

In this episode, Lawfare’s Ukraine Fellow Anastasiia Lapatina sits down with Minna Ålander, an Associate Fellow at Chatham House’s Europe Programme, to discuss what Europe can do to protect its waters.

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